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The common drivers of default risk

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  • Memmel, Christoph
  • Gündüz, Yalin
  • Raupach, Peter

Abstract

Using a unique data set on German banks' loans to the German real economy, we investigate banks' credit risk. This data set includes the volume of loans per bank and industry as well as the corresponding write-downs. Our empirical study for the period 2003-2011 yields the following results: (i) Beyond the nationwide credit loss rate, industry composition, and regional factors, the loans' maturity structure is found to drive the bank-wide loss rates in the credit portfolio. (ii) The nationwide loss rate has the most impact, followed by the maturity structure and the industry composition. (iii) For nationwide banks, these common factors explain about 26% of the time variation in the loss rate of credit portfolios; for regional banks, this percentage is less than eight percent.

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  • Memmel, Christoph & Gündüz, Yalin & Raupach, Peter, 2012. "The common drivers of default risk," Discussion Papers 36/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:362012
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    9. Busch, Ramona & Koziol, Philipp & Mitrovic, Marc, 2015. "Many a little makes a mickle: Macro portfolio stress test for small and medium-sized German banks," Discussion Papers 23/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    11. Nadya Jahn & Christoph Memmel & Andreas Pfingsten, 2016. "Banks’ Specialization versus Diversification in the Loan Portfolio," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 17(1), pages 25-48, April.
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    19. de Roure, Calebe & Pelizzon, Loriana & Tasca, Paolo, 2016. "How does P2P lending fit into the consumer credit market?," Discussion Papers 30/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Raupach, Peter & Memmel, Christoph, 2021. "Banks' credit losses and lending dynamics," Discussion Papers 36/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; systematic risk; maturity; stress tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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