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Climate Minsky Moments and endogenous financial crises

Author

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  • Kaldorf, Matthias
  • Rottner, Matthias

Abstract

Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts deleveraging pressure on the financial sector, initially elevating the financial crisis probability substantially. However, carbon taxes improve long-run financial stability since permanently lower asset returns reduce the buildup of excessive leverage. Quantitatively, we find that the net financial stability effect of ambitious climate policy is positive for low but empirically plausible social discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaldorf, Matthias & Rottner, Matthias, 2024. "Climate Minsky Moments and endogenous financial crises," Discussion Papers 26/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:300701
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Policy; Financial Stability; Financial Crises; Transition Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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