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Climate Minsky moments and endogenous financial crises

Author

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  • Matthias Kaldorf
  • Matthias Rottner

Abstract

How does a shift in climate policy affect financial stability? We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study so-called "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero initially elevates the crisis probability substantially. However, carbon taxes enhance long-run financial stability by diminishing the relative size of the financial sector. Quantitatively, the net financial stability effect is only negative for higher social discount rates. Even then, the welfare effects of "Climate Minsky Moments" are, at most, second-order relative to the real costs and benefits of an accelerated transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kaldorf & Matthias Rottner, 2025. "Climate Minsky moments and endogenous financial crises," BIS Working Papers 1248, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1248
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Kenneth T. Gillingham & Simon Scheidegger & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Kenneth Gillingham, 2024. "Climate Change through the Lens of Macroeconomic Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 11346, CESifo.
    2. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    3. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Benoit Mojon & Cyril Monnet, 2021. "Greening (runnable) brown assets with a liquidity backstop," BIS Working Papers 929, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Garth Heutel, 2012. "How Should Environmental Policy Respond to Business Cycles? Optimal Policy under Persistent Productivity Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 244-264, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate policy; financial stability; financial crises; transition risk; non-linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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