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Risk and Expected Utility Theory

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  • Pope, Robin
  • Selten, Reinhard

Abstract

The paper re-expresses and complements arguments against the normative validity of expected utility theory in Robin Pope (1983, 1991a, 1991b, 1985, 1995, 2000, 2001, 2005,2006, 2007). The objections concern the neglect of the evolving stages of knowledge ahead (stages of what the future will bring) when such evolution is fundamental to an experience of risk. This neglect entails a disregard of emotional and financial effects on well-being before a particular risk is resolved. Problems of the time structure of risk are investigated in a simple temporal framework restricted to a subclass of temporal lotteries in the sense of David Kreps and Evan Porteus (1978). This subclass is narrow but wide enough to discuss basic issues. It will be shown that there are serious objections against the modification of expected utility theory axiomatised by Kreps and Porteus (1978, 1979). By contrast the umbrella theory proffered by Pope that she has now termed SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, offers an epistemically consistent framework within which to construct particular models to deal with particular decision situations. A model by Caplin and Leahy (2001) will also be discussed and contrasted with the modelling within SKAT (Pope, Leopold and Leitner 2006).

Suggested Citation

  • Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard, 2009. "Risk and Expected Utility Theory," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 5/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:52009
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    1. Reinhard Selten & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1999. "Money Does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 213-252, June.
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    3. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    4. Robin E. Pope, 2001. "Evidence of Deliberate Violations of Dominance Due to Secondary Satisfaction - Attraction to Chance," Homo Oeconomicus, Institute of SocioEconomics, vol. 18, pages 47-76.
    5. Spence, Michael & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1972. "The Effect of the Timing of Consumption Decisions and the Resolution of Lotteries on the Choice of Lotteries," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 401-403, March.
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    13. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(4), pages 279-279.
    14. Pope, Robin, 2006. "Multiple Periods Destroy the Axiomatic Base of Expected Utility Theory and its Standard Generalisations," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 30/2006, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    15. Allais Maurice, 1990. "CARDINAL UTILITY: History, Empirical Findings, and Applications An Overview," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 3-40, June.
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    17. Ramsey, Frank P., 1926. "Truth and Probability," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters, in: Braithwaite, R. B. (ed.),The Foundations of Mathematics and other Logical Essays, chapter 7, pages 156-198, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
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    1. Pugno, Maurizio, 2014. "Scitovsky, behavioural economics, and beyond," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-29.
    2. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2009. "Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 26/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).

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