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Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis

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  • Paloviita, Maritta
  • Kinnunen, Helvi

Abstract

Using real time data from the OECD and fiscal policy reaction functions, this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Both iscretionary plans for the budget year and policy changes during budget implementation stages are investigated. The main focus is on the fiscal adjustment to the recent financial and economic crisis. The results suggest that during the monetary union (EMU) euro area planned fiscal policies have been long-term oriented and countercyclical. In the implementation stages new policy decisions have been made as a response to unexpected economics developments. We provide evidence that the crisis had a clear impact on discretionary policies. Due to the increased uncertainty, the crisis emphasized the impact of cyclical developments on fiscal planning. In the implementation stages, huge forecast errors made in budget planning were observed. As a consequence, new decisions were made in order to alleviate negative impacts of the crisis on the euro area economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Paloviita, Maritta & Kinnunen, Helvi, 2011. "Real time analysis of euro area fiscal policies: adjustment to the crisis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2011, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2011_021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2011_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Yehning Chen & Iftekhar Hasan, 2011. "Subordinated Debt, Market Discipline, and Bank Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1043-1072, September.
    3. Evans, George & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2011. "Learning as a rational foundation for macroeconomics and finance," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2011, Bank of Finland.
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    6. Francis, Bill & Hasan, Iftekhar & Sharma, Zenu, 2011. "Leverage and growth: Effect of stock options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 558-581.
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    10. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjö & Nilsson, Mattias, 2011. "The Euro and Corporate Financing," CEPR Discussion Papers 8227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paloviita, Maritta, 2012. "Real time uncertainty in fiscal planning and debt accumulation in the euro area," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2012, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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