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Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities

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  • Mehrotra, Aaron
  • Moessner, Richhild
  • Shu, Chang

Abstract

We analyse how movements in the components of sovereign bond yields in the United States affect long-term rates in 10 advanced and 21 emerging economies. The paper documents significant global spillovers from both the expectations and term premia components of long-term rates in the United States. We find that spillovers to domestic long-term rates in emerging economies from the US expectations components tend to be more sizeable than those from the US term premia. Finally, spillovers from US term premia are larger when an emerging economy displays greater macro-financial vulnerabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2019_020
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    1. Mehrotra, Aaron & Moessner, Richhild & Shu, Chang, 2019. "Interest rate spillovers from the United States: expectations, term premia and macro-financial vulnerabilities," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Beniak, Patrycja, 2019. "The emerging market reaction to Fed tightening," MPRA Paper 96545, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Oct 2019.
    3. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. Eterovic, Dalibor & Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Nicolas, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers in emerging market monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 650-662.
    7. Stéphanie Pamies & Nicolas Carnot & Anda Pătărău, 2021. "Do Fundamentals Explain Differences between Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rates?," European Economy - Discussion Papers 141, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Rivolta, Giulia & Trecroci, Carmine, 2020. "Measuring the effects of U.S. uncertainty and monetary conditions on EMEs' macroeconomic dynamics," MPRA Paper 99403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius Rodriguez, 2023. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 111-158, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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