IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bis/bisqtr/1509i.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International monetary spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Elod Takáts

Abstract

In recent years, interest rates have moved closely together worldwide, even though business cycles have been at different stages across countries. Boris Hofmann and Elod Takáts (BIS) ask how far international monetary spillovers have driven this co-movement, ie whether interest rates in core advanced economies are driving interest rates elsewhere. Studying 30 emerging market and smaller open advanced economies since 2000, they find that (i) US short- and long-term interest rates significantly affect the corresponding rates in other economies and (ii) these price spillovers do in part reflect policy spillovers. In other words, US monetary policy rates do influence policy rates in other countries more than might be expected from normal spillovers of macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1509i
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1509i.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1509i.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 773-787, May.
    2. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    3. Colin Gray, 2013. "Responding to a Monetary Superpower: Investigating the Behavioral Spillovers of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(2), pages 173-184, June.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 2021. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 2, pages 16-84, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 2015. "Monetary Policy Independence under Flexible Exchange Rates: An Illusion?," NBER Working Papers 20893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    9. Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    12. Carlos Montoro & Elöd Takats & James Yetman, 2012. "Is monetary policy constrained by fiscal policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 11-30, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simona Malovana & Josef Bajzik & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Jan Janku, 2020. "A Prolonged Period of Low Interest Rates: Unintended Consequences," Research and Policy Notes 2020/02, Czech National Bank.
    2. Gylfi Zoega, 2020. "Monetary Hegemony and its Implications for Small, Open Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 431-446, December.
    3. Simona Malovaná & Josef Bajzík & Dominika Ehrenbergerová & Jan Janků, 2023. "A prolonged period of low interest rates in Europe: Unintended consequences," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 526-572, April.
    4. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    5. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    6. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    7. Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary independence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 213-225, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    9. Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Ali Sezin Ozdemir, 2019. "The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75.
    10. Rohit, Abhishek Kumar & Dash, Pradyumna, 2019. "Dynamics of monetary policy spillover: The role of exchange rate regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 276-288.
    11. Tolga Dağlaroğlu & Baki Demirel & Syed F. Mahmud, 2018. "Monetary policy implications of short-term capital flows in Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 747-763, November.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    14. Enisse Kharroubi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Monetary independence in a financially integrated world: what do measures of interest rate co-movement tell us?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 193-205, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    16. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Wei Shi, 2016. "Trilemma or Dilemma: Inspecting the Heterogeneous Response of Local Currency Interest Rates to Foreign Rates," IMF Working Papers 2016/075, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    19. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2022. "COVID-19 and Exchange Rates: Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 67-84, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1509i. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.