IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/441.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs

Author

Listed:
  • Philip Turner

Abstract

The global long-term interest rate now matters much more for the monetary policy choices facing emerging market economies than a decade ago. The low or negative term premium in the yield curve in the advanced economies from mid-2010 has pushed international investors into EM local bond markets: by lowering local long rates, this has considerably eased monetary conditions in the emerging markets. It has also encouraged much increased foreign currency borrowing in international bond markets by emerging market corporations, much of it by affiliates offshore. These developments strengthen the feedback effects between bond and foreign exchange markets. They also have significant implications for local banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip Turner, 2014. "The global long-term interest rate, financial risks and policy choices in EMEs," BIS Working Papers 441, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work441.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work441.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jagjit S. Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The ties that bind: monetary policy and government debt management," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 548-581, AUTUMN.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    4. Breedon, Francis, 2018. "On the transactions costs of UK quantitative easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 347-356.
    5. Thordur Jonasson & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou, 2018. "A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks," IMF Working Papers 2018/074, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.
    7. Christopher J. Gust & Arsenios Skaperdas, 2024. "Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Ieva Sakalauskaite, 2017. "Long-term Interest Rates and Public Debt Maturity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 541-558, July.
    9. Abhishek Kumar & Sushanta Mallick & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Market Volatility, Monetary Policy and the Term Premium," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 208-237, February.
    10. Sebastian Beer, 2018. "A cost-risk analysis of sovereign debt composition in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-18, pages 6-25.
    11. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    12. Duan, Jieyi & Hanaki, Nobuyuki, 2023. "The impact of asset purchases in an experimental market with consumption smoothing motives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    14. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    15. Westerhout, Ed & Beetsma, Roel, 2019. "A comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 177-194.
    16. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2016. "Quantitative Easing: An Underappreciated Success," Policy Briefs PB16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Masahiko Nakazawa, 2020. "The impact of government bond purchases by the central banks in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 660-676, December.
    19. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Gauti Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov & Saroj Bhatarai, 2014. "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing," 2014 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term premium; international corporate bonds; monetary policy triangle; currency mismatches;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.