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An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises

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  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús
  • Slacik, Tomás

Abstract

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month.We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Slacik, Tomás, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2007_004
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    1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    2. Homi Kharas & Brian Pinto & Sergei Ulatov, 2001. "An Analysis of Russia's 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 1-68.
    3. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    5. Abbigail J. Chiodo & Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "A case study of a currency crisis: the Russian default of 1998," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Nov), pages 7-18.
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    1. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Tomáš Slacík, 2007. "Predicting Currency Crises Using the Term Structure of Relative Interest Rates: Case Studies of the Czech Republic and Russia," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 135-149.
    2. Jacob Gyntelberg & Alicia Garcia Herrero & Andrea Tesei, 2008. "The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?," BIS Working Papers 261, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crisis; term structure of interest rates; transition economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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