IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/yor/yorken/03-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Asset Market Integration Test Based on Observable Macroeconomic Stochastic Discount Factors

Author

Listed:
  • P N Smith
  • S Sorensen
  • M R Wickens

Abstract

There are a number of tests and measures of the degree of integration in the literature. An example is the idea that integrated markets should provide rates of return that are highly correlated with one another and that a measure of correlation provides an appropriate test. This particular idea is clearly false; for substantial periods of time we don't ever see stocks traded on the same market moving together. Specific models of what prices risk in individual markets could provide the basis of a test of integration. However, as has been widely shown, any differences between these pricing models will be subject to arbitrage by informed traders and so cannot form the basis for a test. In this paper we exploit the absence of arbitrage possibilities and the operation of the 'Law of One Price' in stochastic discount factor (SDF) theory to construct a test of integration based on a common approach to pricing assets in all markets, not only for stocks. The SDF approach that we adopt says that one SDF should price all assets as the model is not market or asset-specific.Unlike much of the literature, we adopt a direct parametric approach which takes estimates of an identical SDF from two asset markets and asks whether the price of risk associated with this SDF is the same for the two assets as SDF theory says it should. Another distinctive feature of our approach is that we employ observable macroeconomic factors. This allows us to estimate and compare the estimated risk premia in the markets concerned, with and without the integration restriction being applied. The paper uses this methodology to test market integration between the UK equity and FOREX markets. Our test rejects market integration for the consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) and two variable SDF models based on consumption growth and inflation and on output and money growth. As equity and FOREX returns have a similar degree of variability, the finding that the risk premium in the FOREX market is generally much more variable than that in the equity market may contribute to the the test outcome.

Suggested Citation

  • P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, "undated". "An Asset Market Integration Test Based on Observable Macroeconomic Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 03/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:03/14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2003/0314.pdf
    File Function: Main text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 1990. "'First-order' risk aversion and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-407, December.
    2. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
    5. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Financial Integration: A New Methodology And An Illustration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1349-1359, December.
    6. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    8. P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk," Discussion Papers 03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    11. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "Financial Integration: A New Methodology And An Illustration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1349-1359, December.
    12. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, 2005. "The asymmetric effect of the business cycle on the relation between stock market returns and their volatility," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 47, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    3. Mahesh Kumar Tambi, 2005. "A test of Integration between Emerging and Developed Nation’s Stock Markets," International Finance 0506004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, "undated". "Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk," Discussion Papers 03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    3. Larry G. Epstein & Angelo Melino, 1995. "A Revealed Preference Analysis of Asset Pricing Under Recursive Utility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 597-618.
    4. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    5. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    6. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    7. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    8. Epstein, Larry G. & Zin, Stanley E., 2001. "The independence axiom and asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 537-572, December.
    9. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April.
    10. Fabio Araujo & Marcelo Fernandes e João Victor Issler, 2004. "Using Common Features to Construct a Preference-Free Estimator of the Stochastic Discount Factor," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 134, Econometric Society.
    11. TallariniJr., Thomas D., 2000. "Risk-sensitive real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 507-532, June.
    12. Beeler, Jason & Campbell, John Y., 2012. "The Long-Run Risks Model and Aggregate Asset Prices: An Empirical Assessment," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 141-182, January.
    13. Stuart Hyde & Mohamed Sherif, 2004. "Don't break the habit: structural stability tests of consumption models in the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 49, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2009. "Risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution in general dynamic portfolio theory: Consistent planning by forward looking, expected utility maximizing investors," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(9-10), pages 634-663, September.
    15. Andrei Semenov, 2003. "An Empirical Assessment of a Consumption CAPM with a Reference Level under Incomplete Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2003_5, York University, Department of Economics.
    16. Larry G. Epstein & Emmanuel Farhi & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2014. "How Much Would You Pay to Resolve Long-Run Risk?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2680-2697, September.
    17. Aase, Knut K., 2012. "What Puzzles? New insights in asset pricing," Discussion Papers 2012/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    18. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    19. Rubens Penha Cysne, 2005. "Equity-Premium Puzzle: Evidence From Brazilian Data," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 088, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Lettau, M. & Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1997. "Preferences, Consumption Smoothing and Risk Premia," Other publications TiSEM 129a8e4c-f593-4f03-b35b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:03/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paul Hodgson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deyoruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.