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Trend in the International Terms of Trade Between Primary Producers and Manufacturers

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  • Harry Bloch
  • David Sapsford

Abstract

Movements in the terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers are analyzed using a model that introduces the influence of relative wage movements in the primary and manufacturing sectors as well as the influence of mark-up pricing in manufacturing. The model is estimated using data on the relative price of primary commodities and manufactured goods in international trade during the post-World War II (WWII) period. A decline in wages of primary-sector workers relative to those of workers in manufacturing and a rise in manufacturing margins are both estimated to have reduced the terms of trade for primary producers. However, expansion of manufacturing output is estimated to have a positive impact that has more than offset the negative influences during periods of moderate to strong growth.
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  • Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, "undated". "Trend in the International Terms of Trade Between Primary Producers and Manufacturers," Working Papers ec3/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
    • Handle: RePEc:wuk:lanedp:ec3/94
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    2. R. J. Ball & E. B. A. St Cyr, 1966. "Short Term Employment Functions in British Manufacturing Industry," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(3), pages 179-207.
    3. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1991. "Postwar Movements in Prices of Primary Products and Manufactured Goods," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 249-266, December.
    4. Malcolm C. Sawyer, 1983. "Business Pricing and Inflation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03166-5, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tilton, John E., 2013. "The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 196-203.
    2. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-656, April.
    3. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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