IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/wrkesp/12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Political Actors Engage in Strategic Deception on Social Media?

Author

Listed:
  • Bosco de Sousa, Faviana

    (Monash University)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of the Denton method in estimating quarterly GDP using indicators [QGDPi(E)] and explores alternative indicators for GDP components that have big errors. This report uses Timor-Leste quarterly data on GDP expenditure and its components from 2010 to 2019 sourced from GDS (Statistical office of Timor-Leste). The QGDPi(E) is temporally disaggregated through the Denton method, and the results will be evaluated in two ways. Firstly, I compare the Denton results to the Cholette-Dagum results. Secondly, I compare the Denton findings to the published (adjusted) quarterly GDP series. Overall, results show that the Cholette-Dagum approach disaggregates the GDP better than the Denton method, based on the mean absolute error estimation. However, the estimation error of GDP and its components for every quarter are similar for both methods. Therefore, it is concluded that the performance of both procedures is very similar. This result could be used as a guide to disaggregating annual GDP into quarterly series using both approaches, which would be beneficial for Timor-Leste. Finally, this study suggests that GDS continues to use the Denton method in the short term. However, it recommends using a more transparent time series regression-based model to estimate quarterly GDP for a better result in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosco de Sousa, Faviana, 2021. "Do Political Actors Engage in Strategic Deception on Social Media?," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 12, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/wmesp/manage/12_-_faviana_bosco_de_sousa.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laura Bisio & Filippo Moauro, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation by dynamic regressions: Recent developments in Italian quarterly national accounts," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 471-494, November.
    2. Mr. Marco Marini, 2016. "Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators: An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods," IMF Working Papers 2016/071, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Rashid, Abdul & Jehan, Zanaib, 2013. "Derivation of Quarterly GDP, Investment Spending, and Government Expenditure Figures from Annual Data: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 46937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Bisio & Filippo Moauro, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation by dynamic regressions: Recent developments in Italian quarterly national accounts," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 471-494, November.
    2. Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Luboš Marek & Stanislava Hronová & Richard Hindls, 2017. "Option For Predicting The Czech Republic'S Foreign Trade Time Series As Components In Gross Domestic Product," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 481-500, September.
    4. Christian Caamaño-Carrillo & Sergio Contreras-Espinoza & Orietta Nicolis, 2023. "Reconstructing the Quarterly Series of the Chilean Gross Domestic Product Using a State Space Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Constantin Anghelache & Madalina-Gabriela Anghel & Alina-Georgiana Solomon, 2017. "National Accounts System: Source of Information in Macroeconomic Forecast," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(2), pages 76-82, April.
    6. Valdivia Coria, Joab Dan & Valdivia Coria, Daney David, 2021. "Impacto del Stress Sistémico en el Crecimiento Económico: Caso Guatemala [Systemic Stress Impact on Economic Growth: The case of Guatemala]," MPRA Paper 110669, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sergio Destefanis & Matteo Fragetta & Nazzareno Ruggiero, 2023. "Active and passive labour-market policies: the outlook from the Beveridge curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(55), pages 6538-6550, November.
    8. Bergin, Adele & Conroy, Niall & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Holland, Dawn & McInerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar & Smith, Donal, 2017. "COSMO: A new COre Structural MOdel for Ireland," Papers WP553, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Marek Luboš & Hronová Stanislava & Hindis Richard, 2017. "Option for Predicting the Czech Republic’S Foreign Trade Time Series as Components in Gross Domestic Product," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 481-500, September.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Short- and long-run relationships between natural gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 219-226.
    11. Wang,Dieter, 2021. "Natural Capital and Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9606, The World Bank.
    12. Abdul RASHID & Farah WAHEED, 2021. "Forward-Backward-Looking Monetary Policy Rules: Derivation and Empirics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 71-92, December.
    13. Proietti, Tommaso & Giovannelli, Alessandro & Ricchi, Ottavio & Citton, Ambra & Tegami, Christían & Tinti, Cristina, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP and its components in a data-rich environment: The merits of the indirect approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1376-1398.
    14. Enrique M. Quilis, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation of economic time series: The view from the trenches," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 447-470, November.
    15. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2022. "Macroeconomic effects of systemic stress: a rolling spillover index approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 109-140.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP ; Proportional Denton Method ; Cholette-Dagum Method JEL Classification: C22 ; C61 ; C82;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.