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Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Arezki, Rabah

    (African Development Bank & Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government)

  • Simeon Djankov, Simeon

    (London School of Economics & Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nguyen, Ha

    (Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank)

  • Yotzov, Ivan

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Using a new dataset of 198 national elections across 48 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth

Suggested Citation

  • Arezki, Rabah & Simeon Djankov, Simeon & Nguyen, Ha & Yotzov, Ivan, 2021. "Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents : Evidence from Oil Shocks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1362, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1362
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rabah Arezki & Simeon Djankov & Ha Nguyen & Ivan Yotzov, 2022. "The Political Costs of Oil Price Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9763, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections ; Incumbent ; Oil Prices ; Economic Shocks JEL Classification: D72 ; E21 ; P16 ; Q43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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