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The Option Value of Scientific Uncertainty on Pest - Resistance Development of Transgenic Crops

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  • Justus Wesseler

Abstract

In this paper the option value of waiting under scientific uncertainty will be derived using the difference between the geometric Brownian motion and the mean reverting process by applying contingent claim analysis. The results will be compared with those generated by either using a geometric Brownian motion or a mean-reverting process only. An example based on the decision problem whether or not to release herbicide tolerant rape seed in the EU will be used to illustrate the differences. The paper contributes to the suggestion made by biologists to further analyze the sensitivity of the results using the real option approach, provides insights about the magnitude of error that can be made by choosing the wrong process, provides a solution to the problem and highlights the implication for the decision of whether or not to release transgenic crops. The results show that scientific uncertainty is less important than one would expect at first hand.

Suggested Citation

  • Justus Wesseler, 2002. "The Option Value of Scientific Uncertainty on Pest - Resistance Development of Transgenic Crops," Others 0206001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0206001
    Note: Type of Document - winword; prepared on windows 98; pages: 15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Merton, Robert C, 1998. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 323-349, June.
    2. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Hanemann, W. Michael, 1989. "Information and the concept of option value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 23-37, January.
    4. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
    5. Gjolberg, Ole & Guttormsen, Atle G., 2002. "Real options in the forest: what if prices are mean-reverting?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 13-20, May.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Fisher, Anthony C., 2000. "Investment under uncertainty and option value in environmental economics," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 197-204, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    biotechnology; cost-benefit analysis; real option; scientific uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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