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Supply Shocks and the Persistence of Inflation

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  • Martin Sommer

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker’s disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference between the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods is attributable to the change in the behavior of inflation expectations - agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post-Volcker period. I construct a simple model of how different monetary policies lead to different persistence equilibria.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Sommer, 2004. "Supply Shocks and the Persistence of Inflation," Macroeconomics 0408005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0408005
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; supply shocks; inflation expectations; persistence; Great Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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