IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0404003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

After experiencing high and persistent inflation for more than two decades, Turkey is entering a period of single-digit inflation again. Following a summary of the macroeconomic developments occurred since early 1970s, this paper attempts to survey the empirical literature both on the dynamics of chronic inflation and on the possible effects of disinflation in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2004. "A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation," Macroeconomics 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0404/0404003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Beckerman, 1992. "The Economics of High Inflation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-21713-7, March.
    2. C. Emre Alper & Murat Ucer, 1998. "Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A ''Random Walk'' Down the Past Decade," Working Papers 1998/02, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    3. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 199-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. De Santis, Roberto, 1993. "An Error Correction Monetary Model Explaining The Inflationary Process In Turkey," Economic Research Papers 268615, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    5. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
    6. Julio H. G. Olivera, 1967. "Money, prices and fiscal lags: a note on the dynamics of inflation," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 20(82), pages 258-267.
    7. Julio H. G. Olivera, 1967. "Money, prices and fiscal lags: a note on the dynamics of inflation," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 20(82), pages 258-267.
    8. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    9. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    10. Ms. Laura Papi & Ms. G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 1997/170, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Fabio Scacciavillani, 1995. "Exchange Rate Movements, Inflation Expectations, and Currency Substitution in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 1995/111, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1998. "Historical origins of the cost-push fallacy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-74.
    13. Mr. Marco Rossi & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 2002/204, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    15. O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 1996. "Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey," Working Papers 1996/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    16. Akcay, O. Cevdet & Alper, C. Emre & Karasulu, Meral, 1997. "Currency substitution and exchange rate instability: The Turkish case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 827-835, April.
    17. Fry, Maxwell J., 1980. "Money, interest, inflation and growth in Turkey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 535-545, October.
    18. McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Inflation: Theory and evidence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 963-1012, Elsevier.
    19. Runchana Pongsaparn, 2002. "Inflation Dynamics and Reaction Function in High-inflation Environment : An Implication for Turkey," Working Papers 0210, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    20. Onis, Ziya & Ozmucur, Suleyman, 1990. "Exchange rates, inflation and money supply in Turkey : Testing the vicious circle hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 133-154, January.
    21. Faruk Seļuk, 1997. "GMM estimation of currency substitution in a high-inflation economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 225-227.
    22. Pierre L. Siklos (ed.), 1995. "Great Inflations of the 20th Century," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 546.
    23. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-531, November.
    24. Erol, Turan & Van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1997. "Real exchange rate targeting and inflation in Turkey: An empirical analysis with policy credibility," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1717-1730, October.
    25. Erin Yeldan & †mit Cizre-Sakallioglu, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium and Inflation in Turkey : The State, Politics, and the Marketsunder a Globalized Developing Economy," Working Papers 9910, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    26. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister, 1997. "Money, Wages and Inflation in Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/174, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2016. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and institutional quality matter?," Post-Print hal-01411695, HAL.
    2. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    3. Alper, Emre & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2009. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 18426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hasan Engin Duran & Burak Dindaroğlu, 2021. "Regional inflation persistence in Turkey," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 460-491, March.
    5. Atilla Gökçe & Umut Ãakmak, 2016. "Long-Term Relationship between Inflation and Public Sector Deficit in the Turkish Economy and its Macroeconomic Implications (1975-2014)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 109-122.
    6. Arsoy, Aylin Poroy & Gucenme, Umit, 2009. "The development of inflation accounting in Turkey," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 568-590.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2002. "Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 43-76.
    2. Dibooglu, Sel & Kibritcioglu, Aykut, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, and stabilization in Turkey, 1980-2002," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-61.
    3. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An empirical analysis of Turkish inflation (1988-2004): some non-monetarist estimations," MPRA Paper 19630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ümit Özlale & Kivilcim Metin Ozcan, 2005. "Does Time Inconsistency Problem Apply For Turkish Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 2005/2, Turkish Economic Association.
    5. Zeren, Fatma & Korap, Levent, 2010. "A cost-based empirical model of the aggregate price determination for the Turkish economy: a multivariate cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 23655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Us, Vuslat & Ozcan, Kıvılcım Metin, 2005. "Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 499-517.
    7. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.
    8. Oya Celasun & R. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati, 2004. "Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 493-509, November.
    9. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
    14. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2002. "Velocity Effect On Inflationary Growth of Turkey: Evidence From Co-integration Analysis and Granger's Causality Test," MPRA Paper 259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3003 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51.
    18. Ardic, Oya Pinar, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey," MPRA Paper 6099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Atilla Gökçe & Umut Ãakmak, 2016. "Long-Term Relationship between Inflation and Public Sector Deficit in the Turkish Economy and its Macroeconomic Implications (1975-2014)," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(4), pages 109-122.
    20. Cem Saatcioglu & Levent Korap, 2006. "Determinants of Turkish Inflation," Working Papers 2006/7, Turkish Economic Association.
    21. Suwareh Darbo & Amandine Nakumuryango, 2018. "Working Paper 305 - Inflation Dynamics In Post-Secession Sudan," Working Paper Series 2432, African Development Bank.
    22. Oya Pınar Ardıc & Faruk Selcuk, 2006. "The dynamics of a newly floating exchange rate: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 931-941.
    23. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    24. repec:pra:mprapa:61939 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Roque B. Fernández, 1991. "What Have Populists Learned from Hyperinflation?," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 121-149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    High inflation; causes of inflation; inertia; exchange rates; disinflation; stabilization policies; Turkish economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.