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Baby Boom, Asset Market Meltdown and Liquidity Trap

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  • Junning Cai

    (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Abstract

A so-called “asset market meltdown hypothesis” predicts that baby boomers’ large savings will drive asset market booms that will eventually collapse because of the boomers’ large retirement dissavings. As good news to baby boomers, our analysis shows that this meltdown hypothesis is fundamentally flawed; and baby-boom-driven asset market booms may not necessarily collapse. However, bad news is that, in the case where meltdowns are about to happen, forward-looking baby boomers’ attempts to escape them will be futile and may lead the economy into a “liquidity trap”. (JEL E21, E22, E44, G12)

Suggested Citation

  • Junning Cai, 2004. "Baby Boom, Asset Market Meltdown and Liquidity Trap," Macroeconomics 0401002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0401002
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on Win2000; pages: 37; figures: 3
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0401/0401002.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 2000/018, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    6. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November.
    7. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    8. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, "undated". "An Exact Solution for the Investment and Market Value of a Firm Facing Uncertainty, Adjustment Costs, and Irreversibility," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simo-Kengne, Beatrice D. & Riedel, Frank & Demeze-Jouatsa, Ghislain-Herman, 2022. "Demographic Changes and Asset Prices in an Overlapping Generations Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 672, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    2. Mr. Rene Weber & David S. Gerber, 2007. "Aging, Asset Allocation, and Costs: Evidence for the Pension Fund Industry in Switzerland," IMF Working Papers 2007/029, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    baby boom; asset market meltdown; liquidity trap; investment elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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