IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0106001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of the Development Trap?

Author

Listed:
  • Sergey Slobodyan

    (CERGE-EI)

Abstract

This paper contains a study of stochastic stability of the development trap in a model of economic growth when the production function is subject to externalities and, as a result, the development trap steady state ins indeterminate. In the presence of indeterminacy, sunspot equilibria can exist. I study the stability of the trap, subject to continuous-time sunspot shocks, modeled as a Wiener process. Global dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic versions of the model are completely characterized. Numerical simulations of the process of escape from the poverty trap caused by the presence of sunspot fluctuations are conducted. Escape time and probabilities are estimated analytically and numerically as a function of initial conditions and the model's parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey Slobodyan, 2001. "Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of the Development Trap?," Macroeconomics 0106001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0106001
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 40 ; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/0106/0106001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Shigoka Tadashi, 1994. "A Note on Woodford's Conjecture: Constructing Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Continuous Time Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 531-540, December.
    3. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    4. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 617-650.
    5. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    6. repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:37-38:p:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jordi Gali & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 1995. "Endogenous Growth and Poverty Traps in a Cournotian Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 37-38, pages 197-213.
    8. Burguet, Roberto & Fernandez-Ruiz, Jorge, 1998. "Growth through taxes or borrowing? A model of development traps with public capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 327-344, May.
    9. Ciccone, Antonio & Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1996. "Start-up costs and pecuniary externalities as barriers to economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-59, April.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 401-426, October.
    11. Baland, Jean-Marie & Francois, Patrick, 1996. "Innovation, monopolies and the poverty trap," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 151-178, April.
    12. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
    13. Salyer, Kevin D. & Sheffrin, Steven M., 1998. "Spotting sunspots: Some evidence in support of models with self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 511-523, October.
    14. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    15. Spear, Stephen E., 1991. "Growth, externalities, and sunspots," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 215-223, June.
    16. Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April.
    17. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre & Wigniolle, Bertrand, 1996. "Continuous-Time Sunspot Equilibria and Dynamics in a Model of Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 24-52, April.
    18. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1986. "Stabilizing competitive business cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 57-76, October.
    19. Lee, Jaewoo, 1996. "Financial development by learning," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 147-164, June.
    20. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
    21. Arifovic, Jasmina & Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1997. "The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 185-209, July.
    22. Gans, Joshua S., 1998. "Time Lags and Indicative Planning in a Dynamic Model of Industrialization," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-130, June.
    23. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
    24. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    25. Dixon,Huw David & Rankin,Neil, 1995. "The New Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521479479.
    26. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Monopolistic competition, endogenous markups, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 748-756, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Slobodyan, 2002. "Welfare Implications of Sunspot Fluctuations," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp204, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Slobodyan Sergey, 2001. "On Impossibility of Limit Cycles in Certain Two-Dimensional Continuous-Time Growth Mode," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, April.
    3. Slobodyan, Sergey, 2005. "Indeterminacy, sunspots, and development traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 159-185, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Slobodyan, Sergey, 2005. "Indeterminacy, sunspots, and development traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 159-185, January.
    2. Sergey Slobodyan, 2002. "Welfare Implications of Sunspot Fluctuations," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp204, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    4. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    5. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
    7. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    8. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Azariadis, Costas & Stachurski, John, 2005. "Poverty Traps," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, Elsevier.
    10. Fay, Scott, 2008. "Selling an opaque product through an intermediary: The case of disguising one's product," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 59-75.
    11. Benhabib, Jess & Gali, Jordi, 1995. "On growth and indeterminacy: some theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 163-211, December.
    12. Goenka, Aditya & Kelly, David L. & Spear, Stephen E., 1998. "Endogenous Strategic Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 97-125, July.
    13. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    14. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
    15. Aloi, Marta & Dixon, Huw D. & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in an open economy with increasing returns to scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 97-125, January.
    16. Tomohiro HIRANO & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2021. "The Wobbly Economy; Global Dynamics with Phase Transitions and State Transitions," CIGS Working Paper Series 21-008E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    17. Park, Hyun, 2013. "Do habits generate endogenous fluctuations in a growing economy?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 54-68.
    18. Cazzavillan, Guido & Pintus, Patrick A., 2005. "On competitive cycles and sunspots in productive economies with a positive money stock," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 137-147, June.
    19. George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 14015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Huberto M. Ennis & Todd Keister, 2001. "Optimal policy with probabilistic equilibrium selection," Working Paper 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    development trap; indeterminacy; stochastic stability; sunspots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0106001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.