IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/9508006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

National, regional and international capital markets: Measurement and implications for domestic financial fragility

Author

Listed:
  • Menzie Chinn

    (University of California at Santa Cruz)

  • Michael Dooley

Abstract

Interest rate based tests and savings-investment correlations disagree on the extent of capital mobility in Pacific Rim economies. The apparent success of several East Asian countries in sterilizing capital inflows has also fueled the controversy. This paper argues that previous studies examining money market rates may be misplacing their focus, since most lending is mediated through (sometimes regulated) banking systems. We forward a simple open-economy macro model, incorporating bank credit. Several predictions of the model are tested. Capital inflows are found to affect bank lending, in certain cases. Rapid expansion of bank lending in the previous two years is also associated with increases in the bank lending-interest rate spread, a proxy for risk. Finally, we assess whether bank lending is an important variable in determining changes in economic activity, specifically investment. The data suggest that the link between money and investment is weaker than the corresponding link involving bank credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie Chinn & Michael Dooley, 1995. "National, regional and international capital markets: Measurement and implications for domestic financial fragility," International Finance 9508006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9508006
    Note: Korearv.wp International Finance, KOREARV.AUX has wp 5.1 graphs.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/9508/9508006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/9508/9508006.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1994. "Capital flows and monetary policy in East Asia," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 94-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Sterilization of money inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 24(2 Year 19), pages 263-285, December.
    5. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark, 1995. "The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements on Investment and GNP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 511-526, May.
    6. Glick,Reuven & Hutchison,Michael (ed.), 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy and Interdependence," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521461108.
    7. Browne, Francis X. & McNelis, Paul D., 1990. "Exchange controls and interest rate determination with traded and non-traded assets: the Irish-United Kingdom experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 41-59, March.
    8. Reisen, Helmut & Yeches, Helene, 1993. "Time-varying estimates on the openness of the capital account in Korea and Taiwan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 285-305, August.
    9. Menzie Chinn & William Maloney, 1998. "Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-74.
    10. Sun Bae Kim, 1993. "Do capital controls affect the response of investment to saving? evidence from the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 23-39.
    11. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 1993. "Credit channel or credit actions? an interpretation of the postwar transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 71-149.
    12. Sean Becketti & Charles S. Morris, 1992. "Are bank loans still special?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 77(Q III), pages 71-84.
    13. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1993. "Economic Activity and the Short-term Credit Markets: An Analysis of Prices and Quantities," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 193-284.
    14. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
    15. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    16. Michael Dooley & Jeffrey Frankel & Donald J. Mathieson, 1987. "International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(3), pages 503-530, September.
    17. Fackler, James S. & Rogers, John H., 1993. "An empirical open-economy macro model with credit," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 203-224.
    18. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 1991. "Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Estimation and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 1991/115, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
    20. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March.
    21. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1993. "Financial opening in developing countries," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 28(1), pages 44-48, January.
    22. Deborah J. Lindner, 1992. "Foreign exchange policy, monetary policy, and capital market liberalization in Korea," International Finance Discussion Papers 435, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Ms. Angeliki Kourelis & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1994/039, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson, 1992. "Exchange rate policy, financial structure, and the transition from credit to monetary instruments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    25. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    26. Cara S. Lown, 1988. "The credit-output link vs. the money-output link: new evidence," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 1-10.
    27. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1992. "Towards Capital Account Convertibility," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 4, OECD Publishing.
    28. Hamid Faruqee, 1992. "Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Estimation and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 706-717, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark M. Spiegel, 1995. "Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Menzie Chinn & Michael Dooley, 1995. "Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Asia Pacific Capital Markets: Integration and Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, pages 169-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chinn, Menzie-D & Dooley, Michael-P, 1997. "Financial Repression and Capital Mobility: Why Capital Flows and Covered Interest Rate Differentials Fail to Measure Capital Market Integration," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 81-103, December.
    4. Menzie Chinn & William Maloney, 1998. "Financial and Capital Account Liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Korea and Taiwan During the 1980's," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-74.
    5. de Brouwer,Gordon, 1999. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521651486.
    6. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Helmut Reisen, 1995. "Managing Temporary Capital Inflows: Lessons from Asia and Latin America," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 395-427.
    8. Bougheas, Spiros & Mizen, Paul & Yalcin, Cihan, 2006. "Access to external finance: Theory and evidence on the impact of monetary policy and firm-specific characteristics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 199-227, January.
    9. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    10. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista & Julio R. Escandon, 2003. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Credit and Aggregate Demand," Macroeconomics 0308001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(1), pages 177-213, March.
    12. Rocío Betancourt & Hernando Vargas & Norberto Rodríguez., 2008. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in Colombia: a Micro-Banking Perspective," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(131), pages 29-58.
    13. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
    14. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    16. Mark M. Spiegel, 1995. "Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.
    17. Spiros Bougheas & Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2004. "Access to External Finance : Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Firm-Specific Characteristics," Working Papers 0406, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hernando Vargas, 1995. "La Relación entre el Crédito y la Inflación," Borradores de Economia 037, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 571-593.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9508006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.