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An empirical analysis of structural models of corporate debt pricing

Author

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  • Joao C. A. Teixeira

    (Lancaster University Management School)

Abstract

This paper tests empirically the performance of three structural models of corporate bond pricing, namely Merton (1974), Leland (1994) and Fan and Sundaresan (2000). While the first two models overestimate bond prices, the Fan and Sundaresan model reveals an extremely good performance. When considering the prediction of credit spreads, the three models under-estimate market spreads but, again, Fan and Sundaresan has a better performance. We find rating, maturity and asset volatility effects in the prediction power, as the models under-estimate less the spreads of riskier firms and of bonds with better rating quality and longer maturity. Moreover, our results reveal the existence of a new industry effect. Spread errors are systematically related to some bond- and firm-specific variables, as well as term structure variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao C. A. Teixeira, 2005. "An empirical analysis of structural models of corporate debt pricing," Finance 0505001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0505001
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giampaolo Gabbi & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "Which factors affect corporate bonds pricing? Empirical evidence from eurobonds primary market spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 59-74.
    2. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
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    6. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    9. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
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    12. Reneby, Joel & Ericsson, Jan, 2001. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities: Theory and Tests," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 445, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 07 Jan 2003.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mercadier, Mathieu & Lardy, Jean-Pierre, 2019. "Credit spread approximation and improvement using random forest regression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 351-365.
    2. Paula Morales-Bañuelos & Guillermo Fernández-Anaya, 2023. "Default Probabilities and the Credit Spread of Mexican Companies: The Modified Merton Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Chang, Sean Tat & Ross, Donald, 2016. "Debt covenants and credit spread valuation: The special case of Chinese global bonds," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 27-44.
    4. Arianna Agosto & Enrico Moretto, 2012. "Exploiting default probabilities in a structural model with nonconstant barrier," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(8), pages 667-679, April.
    5. Kim, Daniel & Pouget, Sébastien, 2023. "Do carbon emissions affect the cost of capital? Primary versus secondary corporate bond markets," TSE Working Papers 23-1472, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural models; corporate debt valuation; empirical credit spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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