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Risk Assessment Under A Nonlinear Fiscal Policy Rule

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Abstract

In the aftermath of the recent debt crisis, many countries are implementing nonlinear fiscal policy rules, whereby the government’s responsiveness to debt must strengthen at higher levels of debt. This paper examines how a nonlinear fiscal policy rule affects the possibility of future insolvency in a small open economy. We find that (1) the criteria for a nonlinear fiscal rule to eliminate explosive behavior should be tighter than the ones proposed by Bohn (1998); (2) a country that adopts a nonlinear fiscal rule could substantially reduce the probability of a solvency crisis; (3) a nonlinear fiscal rule allows a country to reduce the possibility of insolvency without large initial responsiveness.

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  • Christos Shiamptanis, 2014. "Risk Assessment Under A Nonlinear Fiscal Policy Rule," LCERPA Working Papers lm0063, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Jun 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:lm0063
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    Cited by:

    1. Robertson, D. & Tambakis, D., 2016. "Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1674, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Chung-Fu Lai, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(10), pages 1257-1273, October.
    4. Christos Shiamptanis, 2024. "Tax Austerity: Does It Avert Solvency Crises?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1515-1543, September.
    5. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    6. Briodeau, Clémence & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina, 2023. "Inflation and fiscal policy: is there a threshold effect in the fiscal reaction function?," Working Paper Series 2880, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear fiscal rule; Fiscal Sustainability; Solvency Crisis; Policy Switching; Canada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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