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Identifying Fiscal Inflation

Author

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  • De Graeve, Ferre

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Queijo von Heideken, Virginia

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Fiscal theorists warn about the risk of future inflation as a consequence of current fiscal imbalances in the US. Because actual inflation remains historically low and data on inflation expectations do not corroborate such risks, warnings for fiscal inflation are often ignored in policy and academic circles. This paper shows that a canonical NK- DSGE model enables identifying an anticipated component of inflation expectations that is closely related to fiscal policy. Estimation results suggest that fiscal inflation concerns have induced a 1.6%-points increase in long-run inflation since 2001. The model also rationalizes why data on inflation expectations do not reveal such concerns outright.

Suggested Citation

  • De Graeve, Ferre & Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2013. "Identifying Fiscal Inflation," Working Paper Series 273, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0273
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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Working_papers/2013/rap_wp273_130919.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    2. Hanana Khan & Maran Marimuthu & Fong-Woon Lai, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Its Less Inflationary Sources of Borrowing with the Moderating Role of Political Instability: Evidence from Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    3. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
    4. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; inflation; news;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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