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Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis

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  • Talis Tebecis

    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Around the world, countries are becoming more ambitious in their emission reduction pledges. Developing policies to actually meet these targets requires carefully evaluating which policies have been most effective at reducing emissions to date. We use reverse causal policy evaluation to answer this question, asking, “Which climate policies have reduced CO2 emissions the most in Austria since 1995?” This novel approach allows us to identify negative structural breaks, i.e. large reductions in emissions that are not accounted for by the main determinants of CO2 emissions (population and economic growth), and attribute these breaks to relevant policies. We find statistically significant breaks in only four out of 21 sectors, altogether representing a reduction of less than 2.5% of Austria’s total CO2 emissions beyond what would have been expected, given its socio-economic development, which is significantly shy of the country’s 48% emission reduction target.

Suggested Citation

  • Talis Tebecis, 2023. "Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp346, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudia Kettner & Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig, 2018. "Climate Policy Integration on the National and Regional Level: A Case Study for Austria and Styria," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 259-269.
    2. Reinhard Steurer & Christoph Clar & Juan Casado‐Asensio, 2020. "Climate change mitigation in Austria and Switzerland: The pitfalls of federalism in greening decentralized building policies," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 89-108, February.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    4. Nicolas Koch & Lennard Naumann & Felix Pretis & Nolan Ritter & Moritz Schwarz, 2022. "Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 844-853, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; climate policy; reverse causal analysis; Austria; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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