IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wfo/wpaper/y2024i674.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Horvath
  • Martin Spielauer

    (WIFO)

  • Philipp Warum

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Capturing the heterogeneity of life courses improves the accuracy, detail and policy relevance of population and labour force projections. Our study uses the microsimulation model microDEMS for Austria, which simulates individual life courses at a high level of detail and in their family context. The model pays particular attention to educational attainment, health and labour market participation. By maintaining the longitudinal consistency of labour market careers, including the tracking of insurance periods, together with the implementation of detailed retirement rules, our model provides realistic representations of retirement decisions. While we reproduce the demographic outcomes of official (Statistics Austria) population projections, including international migration by region of birth, we integrate several additional dimensions, such as educational differentials in mortality and fertility. MicroDEMS allows to consider a wide range of scenarios when assessing the sensitivity of results, or to focus on the impact of policy changes targeted at specific population subgroups, such as mothers, immigrants, or people with health impairments or lower educational levels. MicroDEMS is a detailed national version of the comparative microWELT model. In this context, microDEMS is used for sensitivity analysis and case studies to assess potential specification bias introduced in microWELT due to the neglect of institutional detail or the less detailed treatment of population heterogeneity, such as in the case of international migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Horvath & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2024. "Life Course Heterogeneity and the Future Labour Force – a Dynamic Microsimulation Analysis for Austria," WIFO Working Papers 674, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2024:i:674
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/71484
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    2. Benjamin Bittschi & Thomas Horvath & Helmut Mahringer & Christine Mayrhuber & Martin Spielauer & Philipp Warum, 2024. "Assessing the Labour Supply Effect of Harmonising Regular Retirement Age in Austria," WIFO Working Papers 673, WIFO.
    3. Elke Loichinger & Bernhard Hammer & Alexia Prskawetz & Michael Freiberger & Joze Sambt, 2017. "Quantifying Economic Dependency," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 351-380, July.
    4. Warren C. Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2015. "Are We Overly Dependent on Conventional Dependency Ratios?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 687-708, December.
    5. Thomas Horvath & Serguei Kaniovski & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer & Thomas Url, 2021. "The Impact of Education and Health on Labour Force Participation and the Macroeconomic Consequences of Ageing," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67107.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2023. "The Impact of Health and Education on Labor Force Participation in Aging Societies: Projections for the United States and Germany from Dynamic Microsimulations," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-35, June.
    3. Alexia Prskawetz & Bernhard Hammer, 2018. "Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134.
    4. Guillaume Marois & Patrick Sabourin & Alain Bélanger, 2020. "Implementing Dynamics of Immigration Integration in Labor Force Participation Projection in EU28," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 339-363, April.
    5. Ediev, Dalkhat M. & Sanderson, Warren C. & Scherbov, Sergei, 2019. "The inverse relationship between life expectancy-induced changes in the old-age dependency ratio and the prospective old-age dependency ratio," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Mirko Licchetta & Giovanni Mattozzi & Rafal Raciborski & Rupert Willis, 2022. "Economic Adjustment in the Euro Area and the United States during the COVID-19 Crisis," European Economy - Discussion Papers 160, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Cristiano Antonelli, 2017. "The Engines of the Creative Response: Reactivity and Knowledge Governance," Economía: teoría y práctica, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, México, vol. 47(2), pages 9-30, Julio-Dic.
    8. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    9. Chiara Ardito, 2017. "Rising pension age in Italy: Employment response and Program substitution," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 155, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    10. Xie, Xiaohong & Osińska, Magdalena & Szczepaniak, Małgorzata, 2023. "Do young generations save for retirement? Ensuring financial security of Gen Z and Gen Y," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 644-668.
    11. Daniela Craveiro & Isabel Tiago de Oliveira & Maria Cristina Sousa Gomes & Jorge Malheiros & Maria João Guardado Moreira & João Peixoto, 2019. "Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(45), pages 1323-1344.
    12. Denisa Kocanova & Viliam Kovac & Vitaliy Serzhanov & Jan Buleca, 2023. "Differences and Similarities in Patterns of Ageing Society in the European Union," E&M Economics and Management, Technical University of Liberec, Faculty of Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 45-64, March.
    13. Elena Nebolsina, 2020. "The Impact of Demographic Burden on Insurance Density," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, December.
    14. Tilak Abeysinghe, 2019. "Old-age dependency: is it really increasing in aging populations?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(13), pages 1111-1117, July.
    15. Diego Wachs & Jorge Onrubia, 2021. "Automatic adjustment mechanisms in public pension reforms: Effects over fiscal sustainability, adequacy, and fairness," Working Papers 2021-05, FEDEA.
    16. Mark D. Ecker & Drew Conrad, 2023. "Estimating labor commuting patterns using polytomous response logistic regression," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(11), pages 1-27, November.
    17. Debasree Das Gupta & David W. S. Wong, 2021. "How “Dependent” Are We? A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Young and the Older Adult Populations in the US," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(6), pages 1221-1252, December.
    18. Johannes Amann & René Böheim & Thomas Horvath & Thomas Leoni & Martin Spielauer, 2021. "The microWELT-US Microsimulation Model for Projections of the US Labour Force Participation Accounting for Education and Health. Technical Report," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67943.
    19. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Choosing between the UN’s alternative views of population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-8, July.
    20. Esther O. Lamidi, 2019. "Household composition and experiences of food insecurity in Nigeria: the role of social capital, education, and time use," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 201-218, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic microsimulation; Pension reform; Labour force participation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2024:i:674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.