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Budgetpolitik im Zeitalter verminderter Erwartungen

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  • Markus Marterbauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Das Konzept der Finanzierungssalden impliziert, dass das Finanzierungsdefizit des Staates nur verringert werden kann, wenn sich gleichzeitig der Unternehmenssektor und das Ausland stärker verschulden oder die privaten Haushalte ihren Überschuss verringern. Dieses Working Paper untersucht, wie die Wirtschaftspolitik diese Anpassungen in einem "Zeitalter verminderter Erwartungen" mit niedrigen Wachstumsraten des BIP beeinflussen kann. Ein verschuldungsfinanzierter Aufschwung der privaten Investitionstätigkeit ist angesichts anhaltend niedriger Kapazitätsauslastung der Unternehmen wenig wahrscheinlich. Eine Ausweitung der Nachfrage des Auslandes, welche eine exportorientierte Strategie der Konsolidierung ermöglichen würde, könnte angesichts der simultanen Budgetkonsolidierungsanstrengungen aller EU-Länder merklich gedämpft werden. Der Sparanteil am verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte erhöhte sich während der Krise; mehrere Strategien bieten sich an, um ihn wieder zu verringern: 1. Eine kreditfinanzierte Hauspreisblase wurde in mehreren Volkswirtschaften in den letzten Jahren angewandt, hat sich aber makroökonomisch als großer Misserfolg erwiesen. 2. Wirkungsvolle Instrumente zur Verringerung der hohen Arbeitslosigkeit und damit des Vorsichtssparens sind in einer Periode schwachen Wirtschaftswachstums die Erhöhung der Beschäftigungselastizität des Wachstums und eine Verringerung der geleisteten Arbeitszeit. 3. Erfolg verspricht auch eine Verbesserung der Anreize für obere Einkommensgruppen, ihre Investitionen zu erhöhen und ihr Sparen zu verringern. 4. Eine Umverteilung von Vermögen und Einkommen bewirkt eine Verringerung der durchschnittlichen Sparneigung und eine Ausweitung der Konsumnachfrage der privaten Haushalte.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Budgetpolitik im Zeitalter verminderter Erwartungen," WIFO Working Papers 366, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2010:i:366
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Ederer, 2010. "Imbalances in the Euro Area," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 15(3), pages 277-290, October.
    2. Karl Aiginger & Margit Schratzenstaller-Altzinger, 2010. "Budgetkonsolidierung unter schwierigen Rahmenbedingungen – Zehn Leitlinien und erste Erfahrungen in der EU," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 83(12), pages 941-954, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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