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Einschätzungen zur aktuellen und erwarteten Preisentwicklung von Nahrungsmitteln in Österreich

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  • Josef Baumgartner
  • Franz Sinabell

Abstract

Der rasche Wirtschaftsaufschwung nach der schweren Rezession durch die COVID-19-Pandemie zeigt Friktionen entlang wichtiger Wertschöpfungsketten. Aufgrund von Engpässen im Transportsystem und weil das Angebot von Rohstoffen und Agrargütern die rasch ansteigende Nachfrage nicht zur Gänze decken kann, sind die Preise vieler Waren ab der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2020 (teilweise sehr) stark angestiegen. Erfahrungsgemäß reagieren die Lebensmittelpreise mit einer gewissen Verzögerung auf Preisänderungen von Agrargütern. Für das laufende Jahr 2021 wird ein Anstieg der Preise von Nahrungs- und Genussmitteln von 1,7% erwartet wobei der Preisanstieg im 1. Halbjahr lediglich 0,9% betrug und im 2. Halbjahr eine Teuerung von 2,5% erwartet wird. Im kommenden Jahr wird ein Anstieg von 2,8% prognostiziert (1. Halbjahr +3,9%, 2. Halbjahr +1,8%).

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Baumgartner & Franz Sinabell, 2021. "Einschätzungen zur aktuellen und erwarteten Preisentwicklung von Nahrungsmitteln in Österreich," WIFO Research Briefs 10, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:rbrief:y:2021:i:10
    Note: With English abstract.
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    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/67442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz Sinabell & Ulrich Morawetz & Carsten Holst, 2014. "Auslandskomponente des Lebensmittelmarktes in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 50911.
    2. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2012. "Export Restrictions and Price Insulation During Commodity Price Booms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(2), pages 422-427.
    3. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Josef Baumgartner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2010. "Milking The Prices: The Role of Asymmetries in the Price Transmission Mechanism for Milk Products in Austria," Working Papers 2010-21, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    4. Atanas Pekanov, 2021. "Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik in der COVID-19-Krise. Zwischen Rettungspaketen und Maßnahmen zur Konjunkturbelebung," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 94(3), pages 193-203, March.
    5. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Baumgartner & Jürgen Bierbaumer & Sandra Bilek-Steindl & Benjamin Bittschi & Christine Mayrhuber & Stefan Schiman, 2022. "COVID-19 Pandemic, Supply Bottlenecks and Price Increases Shape the Economy. The Austrian Economy in 2021," WIFO Reports on Austria, WIFO, issue 7, May.
    2. Josef Baumgartner, 2021. "Verbraucherpreise in Österreich 2021 bis 2023: Entwicklung und Ausblick," WIFO Research Briefs 14, WIFO.

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