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A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? : New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel

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  • Khan,Amjad Muhammad
  • Rodella,Aude-Sophie

Abstract

Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries facegrowing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. This study examines how their relation to water availability andirrigation infrastructure factors in. It documents that the G5 Sahel countries, given their high baseline water scarcityand state fragility, face a higher risk of conflict over water resources compared to the rest of Africa. This isdemonstrated through empirical analyses using geospatial data and exploiting (i) climate-induced variation in wateravailability, and (ii) an event study analysis of conflict trends, which sharply increased post-2010 in the regionfollowing the Arab Spring and the rise of the Boko Haram. Irrigated areas are found to be important for bufferingagainst weather shocks but are also more prone to targeting during conflict events compared to non-irrigated regions.The evidence suggests that this reflects increased competition for scarce (fertile) resources between state andrebel groups on this climate frontier with a well-documented history of agropastoral conflict. Other regions of Africaare not found to experience similar conflict related to water resources. These findings are especially pertinent forinforming projects and policy interventions in fragile countries as post-COVID-19 recovery and climate action plansare rolled out.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan,Amjad Muhammad & Rodella,Aude-Sophie, 2021. "A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? : New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9805, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Hydrology; Irrigation and Drainage; Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage; Labor Markets; Nutrition; Food Security;
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