IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7456.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demand-driven propagation : evidence from the great recession

Author

Listed:
  • Nguyen,Ha Minh

Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence for the Keynesian demand-driven propagation: initial rounds of job losses lead to additional rounds of job losses. The paper shows that U.S. counties with higher pre-existing exposure to tradable industries experienced larger job losses in non-tradable sectors during the Great Recession. This was arguably because laid-off tradable workers cut their consumption, which hurts local non-tradable firms. The finding is not driven by exposure to the construction sector, by the collapse in house prices, or by credit supply problems. In addition, the spillover is stronger when the focus is on the job losses of more income-elastic non-tradable sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen,Ha Minh, 2015. "Demand-driven propagation : evidence from the great recession," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7456, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/10/26/090224b08316d445/1_0/Rendered/PDF/Demand0driven000the0great0recession.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    3. Nguyen, Ha & Qian, Rong, 2014. "Demand collapse or credit crunch to firms? Evidence from the World Bank's financial crisis survey in Eastern Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 125-144.
    4. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 125-173.
    6. Marianne Bertrand & Emir Kamenica & Jessica Pan, 2015. "Gender Identity and Relative Income within Households," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 571-614.
    7. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, December.
    8. Aart Kraay, 2014. "Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 170-208, October.
    9. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    11. Ha Nguyen & Shawheen Rezaei & Divya Agarwal, 2022. "The great recession and job loss spillovers: impact of tradable employment shocks on supporting services," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, June.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    13. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    14. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    15. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2018. "Wealth and Volatility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2173-2213.
    16. ,, 2009. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 8, number 9780199563234.
    17. Aart Kraay, 2012. "How large is the Government Spending Multiplier? Evidence from World Bank Lending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 829-887.
    18. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    19. Delorme Robert, 1991. "State and economic development (the)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9102, CEPREMAP.
    20. Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ha Nguyen & Shawheen Rezaei & Divya Agarwal, 2022. "The great recession and job loss spillovers: impact of tradable employment shocks on supporting services," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, June.
    2. Joya, Omar & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "Do (all) sectoral shocks lead to aggregate volatility? Empirics from a production network perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 77-107.
    3. Nguyen,Ha Minh & Nguyen,Huong, 2016. "Unemployment and mortality : evidence from the great recession," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7603, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Andrés & José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household Leverage and Fiscal Multipliers," Working Papers 1103, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    2. Sheremirov, Viacheslav & Spirovska, Sandra, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in advanced and developing countries: Evidence from military spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    3. Aart Kraay, 2014. "Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries: Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 170-208, October.
    4. Ekaterina Pyltsyna, 2018. "The Change Of Fiscal Multiplier When Switching From Managed Exchange Rate Regime To Thefloating One," HSE Working papers WP BRP 206/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    6. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    7. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Mariel Schwartz, 2019. "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 307-372.
    8. Boehm, Christoph E., 2020. "Government consumption and investment: Does the composition of purchases affect the multiplier?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-93.
    9. David Albouy & Alex Chernoff & Chandler Lutz & Casey Warman, 2019. "Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 533-594.
    10. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    11. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ariel J. Binder & John Bound, 2019. "The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 163-190, Spring.
    13. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    14. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    15. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Redistribution of Local Labor Market Shocks through Firms� Internal Networks," Working Papers 17-03, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    16. Kanazawa, Nobuyuki, 2021. "Public investment multipliers: Evidence from stock returns of the road pavement industry in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    17. Mueller, Holger & Giroud, Xavier, 2016. "Redistribution of Local Demand Shocks through Firms' Internal Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11384, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2016. "Redistribution of Local Labor Market Shocks through Firms’ Internal Networks," NBER Working Papers 22396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Davide Furceri & Jun Ge & Prakash Loungani & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The distributional effects of government spending shocks in developing economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1574-1599, August.
    20. Park, Sujeong & Powell, David, 2021. "Is the rise in illicit opioids affecting labor supply and disability claiming rates?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.