IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/7288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial inclusion, productivity shocks, and consumption volatility in emerging economies

Author

Listed:
  • Bhattacharya,Rudrani
  • Patnaik,Ila

Abstract

How does access to finance impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform further increases the volatility of consumption relative to output. This puzzle is addressed in the framework of an emerging economy model in which households face shocks to trend growth rate, and a fraction of them are financially constrained, with no access to financial services. Unconstrained households can respond to shocks to trend growth by raising current consumption more than the rise in current income. Financial reform increases the share of such households, leading to greater relative consumption volatility. Calibration of the model for pre- and post-financial reform in India provides support for the model?s key predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharya,Rudrani & Patnaik,Ila, 2015. "Financial inclusion, productivity shocks, and consumption volatility in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7288, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7288
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/06/03/090224b082ef15a7/2_0/Rendered/PDF/Financial0incl0n0emerging0economies.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2009. "Financial integration, credit market imperfections and consumption smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 377-393, February.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Did the Indian capital controls work as a tool of macroeconomic policy?," Working Papers 11/87, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Anders Aslund, 2012. "Lessons from Reforms in Central and Eastern Europe in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series WP12-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
    5. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    6. Ms. Agnes A Belaisch & Mr. Charles Collyns & Ms. Paula De Masi & Mr. Guy M Meredith & Mr. Anoop Singh & Ms. Reva Krieger & Mr. Robert Rennhack, 2005. "Stabilization and Reform in Latin America: A Macroeconomic Perspective of the Experience Since the 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 2005/002, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(1), pages 69-102.
    8. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    9. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    10. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    11. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Did the Indian Capital Controls Work as a Tool of Macroeconomic Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 439-464, September.
    12. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    13. Blunch, Niels-Hugo & Canagarajah, Sudharshan & Raju, Dhushyanth, 2001. "The informal sector revisited : a synthesis across space and time," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 23308, The World Bank.
    14. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    15. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Epstein & Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, 2021. "Increasing Domestic Financial Participation: Implications for Business Cycles and Labor Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 128-145, January.
    2. Cyn-Young Park & Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2018. "Financial Inclusion: New Measurement and Cross-Country Impact Assessment," Working Papers wp29, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    3. Chetan Ghate & Pawan Gopalakrishnan & Anuradha Saha, 2023. "The Great Indian Savings Puzzle," IEG Working Papers 459, Institute of Economic Growth.
    4. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Compaoré, Ali, 2022. "Access-for-all to financial services: Non-resources tax revenue-harnessing opportunities in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 236-245.
    6. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Ali Compaore, 2020. "Access-for-all to Financial Services: Non- resources Tax Revenue-harnessing Opportunities in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-02901664, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Has India emerged? Business cycle stylized facts from a transitioning economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 157-172.
    2. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Ila Patnaik, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Productivity Shocks and Consumption Volatility in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/120, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila, 2013. "Credit constraints, productivity shocks and consumption volatility in emerging economies," Working Papers 13/121, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    5. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Tarafdar, Suchismita, 2016. "Fiscal policy in an emerging market business cycle model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 52-77.
    6. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
    7. Mallick, Debdulal, 2017. "The Growth-Volatility Relationship: What Does Volatility Decomposition Tell?," MPRA Paper 79397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mallick, Debdulal, 2015. "Elusive Relationship between Business-cycle Volatility and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 64502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Cravo, Túlio A., 2011. "Are small employers more cyclically sensitive? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 754-769.
    10. Túlio Cravo, 2011. "Are Small Firms more cyclically Sensitive than Large Ones? National, Regional and Sectoral Evidence from Brazil," ERSA conference papers ersa10p507, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Mallick Debdulal, 2019. "The growth-volatility relationship redux: what does volatility decomposition tell?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Mitra, Shalini, 2013. "Informality, financial development and macroeconomic volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 454-457.
    13. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    14. Naoussi, Claude Francis & Tripier, Fabien, 2013. "Trend shocks and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-42.
    15. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    16. Ghate, Chetan & Pandey, Radhika & Patnaik, Ila, 2011. "Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy," Working Papers 11/88, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    17. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2013. "Emerging economy business cycles: Financial integration and terms of trade shocks," Working Papers 13/120, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    18. Taheri, Abouzar & Nessabian, Shahriyar & Moghaddasi, Reza & Arbabi, Farzin & Damankeshideh, Marjan, 2020. "Business Cycles in Some Selected Oil Producing Countries: Iran versus Three OECD Members," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 27(1).
    19. Mohimont, Jolan, 2022. "Welfare effects of business cycles and monetary policies in a small open emerging economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Revisiting the Stylised Facts," Working Papers 664, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Consumption;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.