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50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change

Author

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  • Henderson, J. Vernon
  • Storeygard, Adam
  • Deichmann, Uwe

Abstract

This paper documents a significant impact of climate variation on urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in more arid countries. By lowering farm incomes, reduced moisture availability encourages migration to nearby cities, while wetter conditions slow migration. The paper also provides evidence for rural-urban income links. In countries with a larger industrial base, reduced moisture shrinks the agricultural sector and raises total incomes in nearby cities. However, if local cities are entirely dependent on servicing agriculture so their fortunes move with those of agriculture, reduced moisture tends to reduce local urban incomes. Finally, the paper shows that climate induces employment changes within the rural sector itself. Drier conditions induce a shift out of farm activities, especially for women, into non-farm activities, and especially out of the workforce. Overall, these findings imply a strong link between climate and urbanization in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2014. "50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6925, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6925
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sveta MILUSHEVA & Elisabeth zu ERBACH-SCHOENBERG & Linus BENGTSSON & Erik WETTER & Andy TATEM, 2018. "Understanding the Relationship between Short and Long Term Mobility," Working Paper 3377c250-d046-4340-947c-1, Agence française de développement.
    2. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    3. Joachim Vandercasteelen & Seneshaw Tamru Beyene & Bart Minten & Jo Swinnen, 2017. "Secondary towns, agricultural prices, and intensification: evidence from Ethiopia," Working Papers of LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance 579601, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance.
    4. World Bank, 2015. "Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia," Working Papers id:7550, eSocialSciences.
    5. Feriga,Moustafa Amgad Moustafa Ahmed Moustafa & Lozano Gracia,Nancy & Serneels,Pieter Maria, 2024. "The Impact of Climate Change on Work : Lessons for Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10682, The World Bank.
    6. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice:Evidence from Tanzania," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Castells-Quintana, David, 2017. "Malthus living in a slum: Urban concentration, infrastructure and economic growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 158-173.
    8. Moustafa Feriga & Mancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2024. "The impact of climate change on work lessons for developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2024-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    10. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    11. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Post-Print halshs-01599362, HAL.
    12. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01599362, HAL.
    13. Vandercasteelen, Joachim & Beyene, Seneshaw Tambru & Minten, Bart & Swinnen, Johan, 2018. "Big cities, small towns, and poor farmers: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 393-406.
    14. Maria Waldinger, 2015. "The effects of climate change on internal and international migration: implications for developing countries," GRI Working Papers 192, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    15. Peter Ellis & Mark Roberts, 2016. "Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22549.
    16. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "Adaptation to climate change: A review through a development economics lens," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 183-196.
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    18. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    19. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    20. Maria Waldinger & Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, 2015. "The Effects of Climate Change on Internal and International Migration: Implications for Developing Countries," Working Papers id:7569, eSocialSciences.
    21. Castells-Quintana, David & del Pilar Lopez-Uribe, Maria & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "A review of adaptation to climate change through a development economics lens," Working Papers 309605, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.

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    Keywords

    Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Population Policies; Climate Change Economics; Water Conservation;
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