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Population pressures, migration, and the returns to human capital and land : insights from Indonesia

Author

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  • Liu, Yanyan
  • Yamauchi, Futoshi

Abstract

Rapid population growth in many developing countries has raised concerns regarding food security and household welfare. To understand the consequences of population growth in a general equilibrium setting, this paper examines the dynamics of population density and its impacts on household outcomes. The analysis uses panel data from Indonesia combined with district-level demographic data. Historically, Indonesia has adapted to land constraints through a mix of agricultural intensification, expansion of the land frontier, and nonfarm diversification, with public policies playing a role in catalyzing all of these responses. In contemporary Indonesia, the paper finds that human capital determines the effect of increased population density on per capita household consumption expenditure. On the one hand, the effect of population density is positive if the average educational attainment is high (above junior high school), while it is negative otherwise. On the other hand, farmers with larger holdings maintain their advantage in farming regardless of population density. The paper concludes with some potential lessons for African countries from Indonesia's more successful rural development experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Yanyan & Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2014. "Population pressures, migration, and the returns to human capital and land : insights from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6790, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6790
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kibrom A. Abay & Lina Abdelfattah & Hoda El‐Enbaby & Mai Mahmoud & Clemens Breisinger, 2022. "Plot size and sustainable input intensification in smallholder irrigated agriculture: Evidence from Egypt," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(5), pages 792-810, September.
    2. Yamauchi, Futoshi, 2016. "Rising real wages, mechanization and growing advantage of large farms: Evidence from Indonesia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 62-69.
    3. Ngadi Ngadi & Andy Ahmad Zaelany & Ade Latifa & Dewi Harfina & Devi Asiati & Bayu Setiawan & Fitranita Ibnu & Triyono Triyono & Zanterman Rajagukguk, 2023. "Challenge of Agriculture Development in Indonesia: Rural Youth Mobility and Aging Workers in Agriculture Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Andi Syah Putra & Guangji Tong & Didit Okta Pribadi, 2020. "Food Security Challenges in Rapidly Urbanizing Developing Countries: Insight from Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Andi Syah Putra & Guangji Tong & Didit Okta Pribadi, 2020. "Spatial Analysis of Socio-Economic Driving Factors of Food Expenditure Variation between Provinces in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.
    7. Maria & Irham & Slamet Hartono & Lestari Rahayu Waluyati, 2022. "The effect of environmental awareness on motivation in adopting farming conservation techniques in the various agro-ecological zones: a case study in critical land of Java Island, Indonesia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 1878-1896, February.
    8. Mohamed Abdouli & Anis Omri, 2021. "Exploring the Nexus Among FDI Inflows, Environmental Quality, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in the Mediterranean Region," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 788-810, June.
    9. Zhiyuan Zhu & Jiajia Duan & Ruolan Li & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Spatial Evolution, Driving Mechanism, and Patch Prediction of Grain-Producing Cultivated Land in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    10. Mohammad Ajmal Hameed & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of long-term war on human resource development in Af…ghanistan: evidence from NARDL approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4807-4832, October.
    11. Kalandi Charan Pradhan & K. Narayanan, 2019. "Intensity of labour migration and its determinants: insights from Indian semi-arid villages," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 955-994, October.
    12. Nicoleta Valentina Florea & Mircea Constantin Duică & Constantin Aurelian Ionescu & Anișoara Duică & Mihaela Cristina Onica Ibinceanu & Sorina Geanina Stanescu, 2021. "An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of the Romanian Agricultural Output within the Context of Green Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.

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