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Spatial Evolution, Driving Mechanism, and Patch Prediction of Grain-Producing Cultivated Land in China

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  • Zhiyuan Zhu

    (College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Jiajia Duan

    (College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Ruolan Li

    (College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Xianyang 712100, China)

  • Yongzhong Feng

    (College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, Xianyang 712100, China
    The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Xianyang 712100, China)

Abstract

China has implemented strict policies for protecting cultivated land, and the Chinese government has focused on the non-grain production (NGP) of cultivated land. This study aimed to analyze the spatial evolution law of grain-producing cultivated land (GPCL) in China between 2000 and 2018, explore the mechanism of GPCL, and simulate the spatial characteristics of GPCL in 2036. We used the Geographic Information System (GIS) and a patch-generating land-use simulation model, a new model that proposes a land expansion analysis strategy by improving previous rule-mining methods. China’s grain production rate (GPrate) shows a gradual upward trend between 2000 (36.98%) and 2018 (47.18%). The mutual conversion of GPCL and non-grain-producing cultivated land (NGPCL) are the primary transfer types. The evolution of GPCL is driven by climatic, economic, and social factors, of which population density is the most important factor. GPCL expansion patches are distributed in densely populated, economically developed, and warm and humid plain areas. Further, the simulation results showed that the GPrate in 2036 is estimated to be 41.39%, with GPCL transfer-in significantly exceeding the amount transferred out. Our results further cultivated land evolution-associated research and provide a basis for formulating scientific land-use policies for cultivated land protection for other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiyuan Zhu & Jiajia Duan & Ruolan Li & Yongzhong Feng, 2022. "Spatial Evolution, Driving Mechanism, and Patch Prediction of Grain-Producing Cultivated Land in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:6:p:860-:d:838342
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Xiuju Feng & Jian Gao & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Zhongmin Wang & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2023. "The Impact of Urbanization on Cultivated Land Use Efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Auwalu Faisal Koko & Zexu Han & Yue Wu & Siyuan Zhang & Nan Ding & Jiayang Luo, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis and Prediction of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a Cellular Automata and Novel Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model: A Study of Zhejiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, August.
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    5. Guoming Du & Xiaoyang Wang & Jieyong Wang & Yaqun Liu & Haonan Zhang, 2023. "Analysis of the Spatial–Temporal Pattern of the Newly Increased Cultivated Land and Its Vulnerability in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, March.

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