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Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market

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  • Loren Brandt
  • Aloysius Siow
  • Carl Vogel

Abstract

Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of the worse famines in her history. Birth rates fell during these years and recovered immediately afterwards. The famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts. This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine on the marital behaviour of famine-affected cohorts in the rural areas of Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced from estimates incorporate general equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of equilibrium marital behaviour. Next, the paper uses a structural model of the marriage market, the Choo-Siow model, to decompose observed marital outcomes into quantity and quality effects of the famine. The structural estimates show that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage rates of the famine born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their marital attractiveness. Controlling for changes in educational attainment does not change the conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Loren Brandt & Aloysius Siow & Carl Vogel, 2009. "Large Demographic Shocks and Small Changes in the Marriage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 615, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:auu:dpaper:615
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/CEPR/DP615.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhaskar, Venkataraman & Anderberg, Dan & Bagger, Jesper & Wilson, Tanya, 2019. "Marriage Market Equilibrium, Qualifications, and Ability," CEPR Discussion Papers 13590, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Shreyasee Das & Shatanjaya Dasgupta, 2023. "Hidden costs of industrial disasters: Marriage market consequences of the Bhopal Gas Disaster," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 813-829.
    3. Chiplunkar, Gaurav & Weaver, Jeffrey, 2023. "Marriage markets and the rise of dowry in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. Fletcher, Jason M., 2018. "The effects of in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic on family formation," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-68.
    5. Irene Mosca & Anne Nolan, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of In-Utero Exposure to Rubella," Economics Department Working Paper Series n314-22.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Timo Hener & Tanya Wilson, 2018. "Marital Age Gaps and Educational Homogamy – Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform in the UK," ifo Working Paper Series 256, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Pauline Rossi & Yun Xiao, 2024. "Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets," Working Papers 2024-08, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    8. Shreyasee Das & Shatanjaya Dasgupta, 2019. "Marriage Market Responses in the Wake of a Natural Disaster in India," DETU Working Papers 1902, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    9. Michael Geruso & Heather Royer, 2018. "The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK," NBER Working Papers 24332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ding, Yawen & Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Yu, Xiaohua, 2022. "Memory of famine: The persistent impact of famine experience on food waste behavior," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Shelly Lundberg & Aloysius Siow, 2017. "Canadian contributions to family economics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1304-1323, December.
    12. Amr Ragab & Ayhab F. Saad, 2023. "The effects of a negative economic shock on male marriage in the West Bank," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 789-814, September.
    13. Yiru Wang, 2023. "Famine and matching by socioeconomic status—evidence from the Great Chinese Famine," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 855-912, September.
    14. Nie, Guangyu, 2020. "Marriage squeeze, marriage age and the household savings rate in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Das Gupta, Monica & Ebenstein, Avraham & Sharygin, Ethan Jennings, 2010. "China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5351, The World Bank.
    16. Mingwang Cheng & Zhouxiang Wang & Ning Neil Yu, 2024. "Long‐term mental health cost of the Great Chinese Famine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 121-136, January.
    17. Anderberg, Dan & Vickery, Alexander, 2021. "The role of own-group density and local social norms for ethnic marital sorting: Evidence from the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. John Knowles & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2019. "Fertility Shocks And Equilibrium Marriage‐Rate Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1505-1537, November.
    19. Alessie, Rob & Angelini, Viola & Mierau, Jochen O. & Viluma, Laura, 2018. "Economic downturns and infant health," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 162-171.
    20. Dan Anderberg & Jesper Bagger & V. Bhaskar & Tanya Wilson, 2022. "Marriage market equilibrium with matching on latent ability: Identification using a compulsory schooling expansion," Working Papers 2022_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    famine; marriage market; Choo Siow; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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