IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v31y2005i1p57-84.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?

Author

Listed:
  • Robert D. Retherford
  • Minja Kim Choe
  • Jiajian Chen
  • Li Xiru
  • Cui Hongyan

Abstract

According to births in the last year as reported in China's 2000 census, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the year 2000 in China was 1.22 children per woman. This estimate is widely considered to be too low, primarily because some women who had out‐of‐quota births according to China's one‐child family policy did not report those births to the census enumerator. Analysis of fertility trends derived by applying the own‐children method of fertility estimation to China's 1990 and 2000 censuses indicates that the true level of the TFR in 2000 was probably between 1.5 and 1.6 children per woman. A decomposition analysis of change in the TFR between 1990 and 2000, based on our best estimate of 1.59 for the TFR in 2000, indicates that about two‐fifths of the decline in the conventional TFR between 1990 and 2000 is accounted for by later marriage and less marriage, and three‐fifths by declining fertility within marriage. The analysis also applies the birth history reconstruction method of fertility estimation to the two censuses, yielding an alternative set of fertility estimates that are compared with the set derived by the own‐children method. The analysis also includes estimates of trends in fertility by urban/rural residence, education, ethnicity, and migration status. Over time, fertility has declined sharply within all categories of these characteristics, indicating that the one‐child policy has had large across‐the‐board effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert D. Retherford & Minja Kim Choe & Jiajian Chen & Li Xiru & Cui Hongyan, 2005. "How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(1), pages 57-84, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:1:p:57-84
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440, September.
    2. Yong Cai, 2008. "An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable-r method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 271-281, May.
    3. Ming-Chang Tsai & Tsui-o Tai, 2018. "How are Mothers Faring across the Globe? Constructing a new Mothers’ Well-Being Index and Assessing Its Validity," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 647-670, September.
    4. Zhongwei Zhao & Wei Chen, 2011. "China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact: Comments on the preliminary results of the 2010 census," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(26), pages 819-836.
    5. Yong Cai, 2013. "China's New Demographic Reality: Learning from the 2010 Census," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(3), pages 371-396, September.
    6. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    7. Valeria Cetorelli, 2014. "The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 581-604, December.
    8. Daniel Goodkind, 2011. "Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 291-316, February.
    9. Ying Liang & Yingying Yi & Qiufen Sun, 2014. "The Impact of Migration on Fertility under China’s Underlying Restrictions: A Comparative Study Between Permanent and Temporary Migrants," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 116(1), pages 307-326, March.
    10. Pei-Ju Liao & Ping Wang & Yin-Chi Wang & Chong Kee Yip, 2020. "To Stay or to Migrate? When Becker Meets Harris-Todaro," NBER Working Papers 27767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Christophe Guilmoto, 2012. "Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(1), pages 77-100, February.
    12. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers, 2006. "Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-467, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    13. Li, Bingjing & Zhang, Hongliang, 2017. "Does population control lead to better child quality? Evidence from China’s one-child policy enforcement," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 246-260.
    14. Ian Timæus, 2021. "The Own-Children Method of fertility estimation: The devil is in the detail," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(25), pages 825-840.
    15. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    16. M. Giovanna Merli & Sara Hertog, 2010. "Masculine sex ratios, population age structure and the potential spread of HIV in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(3), pages 63-94.
    17. Daniel Goodkind, 2017. "The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1375-1400, August.
    18. S. Philip Morgan & Guo Zhigang & Sarah R. Hayford, 2009. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 605-629, September.
    19. Hanzhi Hu, 2023. "The Consequences of Fertility Decline on Educational Attainment in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-30, December.
    20. Feng Wang & Yong Cai & Ke Shen & Stuart Gietel-Basten, 2018. "Is Demography Just a Numerical Exercise? Numbers, Politics, and Legacies of China’s One-Child Policy," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(2), pages 693-719, April.
    21. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
    22. Das Gupta, Monica & Ebenstein, Avraham & Sharygin, Ethan Jennings, 2010. "China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5351, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:1:p:57-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.