Afghanistan’s New Economic Landscape : Using Nighttime Lights to Understand the Civilian Economy after 2021

This study uses nighttime lights to examine the evolution of economic activity in Afghanistan after the August 2021 regime change. A year later, nighttime luminosity had dropped by 20 percent, with two-thirds of this decline tied to the pre-planned international military withdrawal. To focus on local economic activity, the study filters out light emissions from foreign military installations, which accounted for up to 30 percent of lights over the past decade. Using civilian nighttime lights to understand the new economic reality in the country indicates a significant economic recovery concentrated in previously conflict-affected regions. By 2023/24, civilian luminosity had surpassed pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent while, in contrast, official gross domestic product indicates an economy that is one-quarter smaller. The findings highlight changes in economic dynamics, including increased informality, shifts in the geographic distribution of activity, and improved security post-Taliban takeover.