IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10457.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Struggling with the Rain : Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania

Author

Listed:
  • Blanchard,Paul Baptiste
  • Ishizawa Escudero,Oscar Anil
  • Humbert,Thibaut
  • Van Der Borght,Rafael

Abstract

Weather-related shocks and climate variability contribute to hampering progress toward povertyreduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts have a direct impact on weather-dependent livelihood means and thepotential to affect key dimensions of households’ welfare, including food consumption. Yet, the ability to forecastfood insecurity for intervention planning remains limited and current approaches mainly rely on qualitative methods.This paper incorporates microeconomic estimates of the effect of the rainy season quality on food consumption intoa catastrophe risk modeling approach to develop a novel framework for early forecasting of food insecurity atsub-national levels. The model relies on three usual components of catastrophe risk models that are adapted forestimation of the impact of rainy season quality on food insecurity: natural hazards, households’ vulnerability andexposure. The paper applies this framework in the context of rural Mauritania and optimizes the model calibration with amachine learning procedure. The model can produce fairly accurate lean season food insecurity predictions very earlyon in the agricultural season (October-November), that is six to eight months ahead of the lean season. Comparisons ofmodel predictions with survey-based estimates yield a mean absolute error of 1.2 percentage points at the nationallevel and a high degree of correlation at the regional level (0.84).

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchard,Paul Baptiste & Ishizawa Escudero,Oscar Anil & Humbert,Thibaut & Van Der Borght,Rafael, 2023. "Struggling with the Rain : Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10457, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099329405302313976/pdf/IDU1ac3abf051edcb143c619a241dc4aec8e2cd6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    2. Kathleen Beegle & Luc Christiaensen, 2019. "Accelerating Poverty Reduction in Africa [Accélérer la réduction de la pauvreté en Afrique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32354.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Komikouma Apelike Wobuibe Neglo & Tnsue Gebrekidan & Kaiyu Lyu, 2021. "The Role of Agriculture and Non-Farm Economy in Addressing Food Insecurity in Ethiopia: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Emmanuel Skoufias & Yasuhiro Kawasoe & Eric Strobl & Pablo Acosta, 2020. "Identifying the Vulnerable to Poverty from Natural Disasters: The Case of Typhoons in the Philippines," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 45-82, April.
    3. Richard Kwabena Nkrumah & Samuel Kobina Annim & Benedict Afful, 2021. "Household Social Expenditure in Ghana: Examining the Ex-Post Effects and Vulnerability to Poverty," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, January.
    4. Jeffrey Kouton, 2021. "The impact of renewable energy consumption on inclusive growth: panel data analysis in 44 African countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 145-170, February.
    5. Jeremy Lind & Rachel Sabates‐Wheeler & John Hoddinott & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, 2022. "Targeting Social Transfers in Ethiopia's Agro‐pastoralist and Pastoralist Societies," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 279-307, March.
    6. Tseday J. Mekasha & Kenneth Mdadila & Jehovaness Aikaeli & Finn Tarp, 2022. "Export Commodity Dependence and Vulnerability to Poverty," DERG working paper series 22-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    7. Desbureaux, Sébastien & Rodella, Aude-Sophie, 2019. "Drought in the city: The economic impact of water scarcity in Latin American metropolitan areas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 13-27.
    8. De Weerdt,Joachim & Christiaensen,Luc & Kanbur,Ravi, 2021. "When Distance Drives Destination, Towns Can Stimulate Development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9622, The World Bank.
    9. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    10. Sandra Baquié & Guillem Foucault, 2023. "Background Note on Bringing Climate Change into Vulnerability Analysis," World Bank Publications - Reports 40533, The World Bank Group.
    11. Alina Kalle & Miriam Muller, 2024. "If Children Aren’t Full, Can Adults Eat?," World Bank Publications - Reports 42272, The World Bank Group.
    12. Cattaneo, Andrea & Adukia, Anjali & Brown, David L. & Christiaensen, Luc & Evans, David K. & Haakenstad, Annie & McMenomy, Theresa & Partridge, Mark & Vaz, Sara & Weiss, Daniel J., 2022. "Economic and social development along the urban–rural continuum: New opportunities to inform policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Mauro Vigani & Hasan Dudu & Gloria Solano-Hermosilla, 2019. "Estimation of food demand parameters in Ethiopia: A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach," JRC Research Reports JRC117125, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Baez, Javier E. & Kshirsagar, Varun & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Drought-sensitive targeting and child growth faltering in Southern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    15. Shohei Nakamura & Pierre-Philippe Combes & Robin Moellerherm & Charlotte Robert & Mark Roberts & Benjamin Stewart & Slava Yakubenko, 2023. "Where Is Poverty Concentrated? New Evidence Based on Internationally Consistent Urban and Poverty Measurements," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04345458, HAL.
    16. Wu, Haoyu & Atamanov, Aziz & Bundervoet, Tom & Paci, Pierella, 2024. "Is economic growth less welfare enhancing in Africa? Evidence from the last forty years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    17. Mager, Gregor & Faße, Anja, 2021. "The Contribution of Smallholders´ Livelihood Activities on Income Inequality and Poverty: Case Study from Rural Tanzania," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315405, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Nxumalo, Mpumelelo Author-Name: Raju, Dhushyanth, "undated". "Structural Transformation and Labor Market Performance in Ghana," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 154568, The World Bank.
    19. Haydeeliz Carrasco & Hamidou Jawara & Moritz Meyer, 2022. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Inequality And Poverty In The Gambia," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 117, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    20. Ville-Pekka Niskanen & Mikko Rask & Harri Raisio, 2021. "Wicked Problems in Africa: A Systematic Literature Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.