IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10218.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Learning Losses during COVID-19 : Global Estimates of an Invisible and Unequal Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De
  • Akmal,Maryam
  • Cloutier,Marie-Helene
  • Rogers,F. Halsey
  • Wong,Yi Ning

Abstract

This paper presents updated simulation results of the potential effects ofCOVID-19-related school closures on learning outcomes globally. The simulation, which updates and extends priorwork by Azevedo, Hasan et al. (2021) and Azevedo (2020), examines potential learning losses as the pandemic movesinto the third year. Beyond reflecting the longer duration of the crisis, the paper extends prior work by usingcountry-specific observed school closure information, accounts for the partial reopening of some educationsystems, updates the baseline Learning Poverty estimates to reflect its best estimate to date just before the pandemic(circa 2019), and uses updated June 2021 macroeconomic projections to reflect the economic magnitude of the crisis.The analysis finds that the overall learning levels are likely to fall substantially around the world. Under an“intermediate” scenario, school closures could potentially increase the share of children in Learning Poverty in low-and middle-income countries by 13 percentage points, to 70 percent. Globally, learning adjusted years of schoolingcould fall by 1.1 years, and the share of youth below minimum proficiency on the Programme for InternationalStudent Assessment could rise by 12.3 percentage points. Furthermore, school shutdowns could generate lifetimeearning losses of $21 trillion. These results imply that decisive action is needed to recover and accelerate learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De & Akmal,Maryam & Cloutier,Marie-Helene & Rogers,F. Halsey & Wong,Yi Ning, 2022. "Learning Losses during COVID-19 : Global Estimates of an Invisible and Unequal Crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10218, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10218
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099822210272215882/pdf/IDU0b17fcd5600fa404cab0be570fa1cb97ba906.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filmer, Deon & Rogers, Halsey & Angrist, Noam & Sabarwal, Shwetlena, 2020. "Learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS): Defining a new macro measure of education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Kaffenberger, Michelle, 2021. "Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angrist, Noam & de Barros, Andreas & Bhula, Radhika & Chakera, Shiraz & Cummiskey, Chris & DeStefano, Joseph & Floretta, John & Kaffenberger, Michelle & Piper, Benjamin & Stern, Jonathan, 2021. "Building back better to avert a learning catastrophe: Estimating learning loss from COVID-19 school shutdowns in Africa and facilitating short-term and long-term learning recovery," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Guriev, Sergei & Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "A theory of informational autocracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Sabine Zinn & Michael Bayer, 2021. "Time Spent on School-Related Activities at Home during the Pandemic: A Longitudinal Analysis of Social Group Inequality among Secondary School Students," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1132, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    4. Hessah Saad Alarifi & Mashael Saleh ALjuwayid & Wafa Abdulrahman Quraishi, 2021. "Between Justice and Regularity Between Justice and Regularity in Distance Education Homeschooling and Community Partnerships Solutions in the Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 25(1), pages 49-64, November.
    5. Zoltán Lakner & Brigitta Plasek & Anna Kiss & Sándor Soós & Ágoston Temesi, 2021. "Derailment or Turning Point? The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sustainability-Related Thinking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, May.
    6. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis & Vélez-Grajales, Roberto & López-Calva, Luis F., 2022. "The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learnings," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Moshoeshoe,Ramaele Elias, 2020. "Long-Term Effects of Free Primary Education on Educational Achievement : Evidence from Lesotho," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9404, The World Bank.
    8. Ángel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2024. "Cross‐country data on skills and the quality of schooling: A selective survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 3-26, February.
    9. Heidmann, Laure & Neirac, Lucie & Andreu, Sandra & Conceiçao, Pierre & Eteve, Yann & Fabre, Marianne & Vourc'h, Ronan, 2023. "Delayed learning to read and write during the COVID-19 pandemic: longitudinal study of the heterogeneous effects on all first graders in France," SocArXiv qn9a8, Center for Open Science.
    10. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    11. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    12. World Bank & UNESCO, 2023. "Education Finance Watch 2023," World Bank Publications - Reports 40610, The World Bank Group.
    13. World Bank, 2024. "Gulf Economic Update, Spring 2024," World Bank Publications - Reports 41642, The World Bank Group.
    14. Masagazi Joel Yawe & Nnabbanja Harriet, 2024. "Navigating Educational Disruptions: The Impact of COVID-19 on Daily Functioning of Private Secondary Schools," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(2), pages 2294-2306, February.
    15. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Rodríguez Pico, Mariana & Maldonado, Darío & García, Sandra, 2023. "Learning inequality during Covid-19: Evidence from secondary schools in Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Gust, Sarah & Hanushek, Eric A. & Woessmann, Ludger, 2024. "Global universal basic skills: Current deficits and implications for world development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    17. Renata Lemos & Karthik Muralidharan & Daniela Scur, 2024. "Personnel Management and School Productivity: Evidence from India," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(661), pages 2071-2100.
    18. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Torre, Iván, 2022. "Measuring human capital in middle income countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 1036-1067.
    19. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis Angel, 2021. "Modelling the learning impacts of educational disruptions in the short and long run," SocArXiv z6x5s, Center for Open Science.
    20. Linda Glawe & Carlos Mendez, 2023. "Schooling Ain’t Learning in Europe: A Club Convergence Perspective," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(2), pages 324-361, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10218. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.