Optimal Markowitz Portfolio Using Returns Forecasted with Time Series and Machine Learning Models
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 151-151.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Mojtaba Nabipour & Pooyan Nayyeri & Hamed Jabani & Amir Mosavi, 2020. "Deep learning for Stock Market Prediction," Papers 2004.01497, arXiv.org.
- Robert Engle, 2001. "GARCH 101: The Use of ARCH/GARCH Models in Applied Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 157-168, Fall.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Sami Ben Jabeur & Salma Mefteh-Wali & Jean-Laurent Viviani, 2021. "Forecasting gold price with the XGBoost algorithm and SHAP interaction values," Post-Print hal-03331805, HAL.
- Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Siddiqi, Hammad, 2007. "Rational Interacting Agents and Volatility Clustering: A New Approach," MPRA Paper 2984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Eric Beutner & Julia Schaumburg & Barend Spanjers, 2024. "Bootstrapping GARCH Models Under Dependent Innovations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- Freddy Ronalde Camacho-Villagomez & Yanina Shegia Bajaña-Villagomez & Andrea Johanna RodrÃguez-Bustos, 2024. "Estimating the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Ecuadorian Economy: A MIDAS Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 371-376, July.
- Suripto & Supriyanto, 2021. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Prices with the Event Window Approach: A Case Study of State Gas Companies, in the Energy Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 155-162.
- Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
- Bernardi, Mauro & Costola, Michele, 2019. "High-dimensional sparse financial networks through a regularised regression model," SAFE Working Paper Series 244, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
- Buczyński Mateusz & Chlebus Marcin, 2018. "Comparison of Semi-Parametric and Benchmark Value-At-Risk Models in Several Time Periods with Different Volatility Levels," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 67-82, June.
- M. Jiménez Gamero, 2014. "On the empirical characteristic function process of the residuals in GARCH models and applications," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(2), pages 409-432, June.
- Doyle, John R. & Chen, Catherine Huirong, 2009. "The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1388-1399, August.
- Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2006. "Accurate Value-at-Risk forecast with the (good old) normal-GARCH model," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Chen, Rongda & Xu, Jianjun, 2019. "Forecasting volatility and correlation between oil and gold prices using a novel multivariate GAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 379-391.
- Hwang, Eunju & Jeon, ChanHyeok, 2024. "Nonnegative GARCH-type models with conditional Gamma distributions and their applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
- Meriem Rjiba & Michail Tsagris & Hedi Mhalla, 2015.
"Bootstrap for Value at Risk Prediction,"
International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(6), pages 362-371.
- Meriem Rjiba, Meriem & Tsagris, Michail & Mhalla, Hedi, 2015. "Bootstrap for Value at Risk Prediction," MPRA Paper 68842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2017. "Volatility Modeling of U.S. Metropolitan Retail Gasoline Prices: An Empirical Note," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), September.
- Matthias Bauer & Martin Zenker, 2012. "Market Discipline Under A Politicised Multilateral Fiscal Rule - Lessons from the Stability and Growth Pact Debate," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 2012-35, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Chkili, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014.
"Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-18.
- Walid Chkili & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Working Papers 2014-325, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Walid Chkili & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Volatility forecasting and risk management for commodity markets in the presence of asymmetry and long memory," Working Papers 2014-389, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Javier Sánchez García & Salvador Cruz Rambaud, 2022. "A GARCH approach to model short‐term interest rates: Evidence from Spanish economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1621-1632, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
More about this item
Keywords
Algorithmic Investment Strategies; Markowitz framework; portfolio optimization; forecasting; ARIMA; GARCH; XGBoost; minimum variance;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-BIG-2023-08-28 (Big Data)
- NEP-CMP-2023-08-28 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2023-08-28 (Financial Markets)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.