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What do lab experiments tell us about the real world? The case of lotteries with extreme payoffs

Author

Listed:
  • Raman Kachurka

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Michał Krawczyk

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Joanna Rachubik

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

In this study, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which the subjects make choices between real-world lottery tickets typically purchased by lottery customers. In this way, we are able to reliably offer extremely high potential payoffs, something rarely possible in economic experiments. In a between-subject design, we separately manipulate a number of features that distinguish the situation faced by the customers in the field and by subjects in typical laboratory experiments. We also have the unique opportunity to compare our data to actual sales data provided by the operator of the lottery. Overall, we find the distributions to be highly similar (meaning high external validity of the laboratory experiment). The only manipulation that makes a major difference is that when the probabilities of winning specific amounts are explicitly provided (which is not the case in the field), choices shift towards options with lower payoff variance. We also find that standard laboratory measures of risk posture fail to explain our subjects’ behavior in the main task.

Suggested Citation

  • Raman Kachurka & Michał Krawczyk & Joanna Rachubik, 2020. "What do lab experiments tell us about the real world? The case of lotteries with extreme payoffs," Working Papers 2020-03, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-03
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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/5387/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making under risk; External validity; Longshot bias; Perception of randomness; Number preferences in lotteries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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