Heterogeneous impacts of local unemployment rates on child neglect: Evidence from Japan’s vital statistics on mortality

This study examines the causal impact of the local unemployment rate on child death cases due to unintentional drowning – a common consequence of child neglect – using vital statistics from Japan. We use predicted overall and gender-specific local unemployment rates derived from a shift-share research design, rather than the raw local unemployment rates. Our estimation results reveal that a one-percent increase in the overall local unemployment rate correlates with a 7.13% rise in child death cases due to unintentional drowning. When analyzing gender-specific unemployment rates, we find that only increases in female unemployment rates are associated with an uptick in tragic cases. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of female local unemployment rate is more pronounced in regions characterized by lower socioeconomic status, higher proportions of younger parents, a greater prevalence of single-parent households, and fewer public resources. Furthermore, our findings suggest that younger single parents are particularly susceptible to the mental health impacts of increases in female local unemployment rates.