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Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?

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  • Creedy, John
  • Gemmell, Norman

Abstract

This paper examines the extent to which projected aggregate tax revenue changes, association with population ageing over the next 50 years, can be expected to finance expected increases in social welfare expenditures. Projections from two separate models, dealing with social expenditures and income tax and GST revenue, are used. The results suggest that the modest projected required increase in the overall average tax rate over the next 50 years can be achieved automatically by adjusting income tax thresholds using an index of prices rather than wages. Based on evidence about the New Zealand tax system over the last 50 years, comparisons of average and marginal tax rates suggest that such an increase may be feasible and affordable. The paper discusses the range of considerations involved in deciding if this automatic increase in the aggregate average tax rate, via real fiscal drag of personal income taxes, is desirable compared with alternative fiscal policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Working Paper Series 18777, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwcpf:18777
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Population ageing and the growth of income and consumption tax revenue," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 169-182, August.
    2. Fiona McAlister & Debasis Bandyopadhyay & Robert Barro & Jeremy Couchman & Norman Gemmell & Gordon Liao, 2012. "Average Marginal Income Tax Rates for New Zealand, 1907-2009," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. repec:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:1:p:19-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Matthew Bell & Gary Blick & Oscar Parkyn & Paul Rodway & Polly Vowles, 2010. "Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. John Creedy & Grant M Scobie, 2002. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/28, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Simon Loretz, 2008. "Corporate taxation in the OECD in a wider context," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(4), pages 639-660, winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taxation; Aging population; Public spending; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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