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Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Bell
  • Gary Blick
  • Oscar Parkyn
  • Paul Rodway
  • Polly Vowles

    (The Treasury)

Abstract

This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand’s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends scenario allows historic and current spending and revenue settings to interact with changing demography. The sustainable debt scenario applies a fiscal constraint on non-benefit spending so that Crown net debt follows the Government’s medium-term fiscal targets. The modelling innovations introduced this time do not alter the basic structure and principles of the Long-term Fiscal Model, but instead provide insights into government spending: public sector productivity growth and the growth of the basket of services each person receives. These innovations enable us to illustrate the effects of tradeoffs between broad spending categories in a constrained fiscal environment. In the 2009 Statement, these policy changes are combined into three possible scenarios for obtaining a sustainable fiscal position. The paper also illustrates the sensitivity of the fiscal position to small changes in the demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal modelling assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Bell & Gary Blick & Oscar Parkyn & Paul Rodway & Polly Vowles, 2010. "Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:10/01
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2010-01/twp10-01.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Fighting fit? Assessing New Zealand’s fiscal sustainability," NZIER Working Paper 2013/5, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Mr. Werner Schule, 2010. "The Potential Contribution of Fiscal Policy to Rebalancing and Growth in New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2010/128, International Monetary Fund.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "New Zealand: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/145, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gerhards, Eva & Goerl, Caroline-Antonia & Thöne, Michael, 2012. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Eine Bestandsaufnahme national und international praktizierter Methoden der langfristigen Budgetanalyse [Sustainability of Public Finances: A review of inte," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 14, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    7. Ross Guest, 2013. "Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/12, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Ross Guest, 2013. "Population Ageing and Productivity: Implications and Policy Options for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/21, New Zealand Treasury.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population; projections; social expenditure; fiscal costs; New Zealand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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