IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2014i1p86-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the Endogeneity of Trade and Financial Integration and Sectoral Specialization in an Enlarged Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Dinu, Marin

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Marinas, Marius-Corneliu

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Socol, Cristian

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Socol, Aura-Gabriela

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

In this study we analyzed the trade, financial and structural asymmetries between the core and periphery of the Euro Area, and between these countries and seven CEE economies, respectively. The study includes an investigation of the trade, financial integration and sectoral specialization transmission channels on the business cycle synchronization for 16 EU countries between 1998 and 2011. In order to test the endogeneity of the four variables, we used the three-stage least squares method for a simultaneous equations system. According to the results, we identified three arguments for endogeneity in an enlarged Euro Area with other CEE economies. Thus, most of the CEE economies recorded a higher correlation of the business cycles and a higher share of the intra-industry trade with the Euro Area advanced countries as compared to Portugal or Greece. Moreover, the group of the CEE economies is more commercially integrated as compared to the peripheral economies of the Euro Area. Also, the sectoral changes in the New Member States show a process of structural convergence with the advanced economies of the Euro Area core.

Suggested Citation

  • Dinu, Marin & Marinas, Marius-Corneliu & Socol, Cristian & Socol, Aura-Gabriela, 2014. "Testing the Endogeneity of Trade and Financial Integration and Sectoral Specialization in an Enlarged Euro Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 86-104, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:1:p:86-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_14/rjef1_2014p86-104.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    3. Thierry Mayer & Keith Head, 2002. "Illusory Border Effects: Distance Mismeasurement Inflates Estimates of Home Bias in Trade," Working Papers 2002-01, CEPII research center.
    4. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Trade-induced Investment-led Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    7. Andrew Abbott & Joshy Easaw & Tao Xing, 2008. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Convergence: Is the Relation Robust across Time and Space?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(2), pages 403-417, June.
    8. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2011. "Sectoral Structure and Economic Growth," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-36, September.
    9. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    10. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    11. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    14. Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?," Working Papers 0810, Banco de España.
    15. Seghezza, Elena & Baldwin, Richard E., 2008. "Testing for Trade-Induced Investment-Led Growth," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(2-3), pages 507-537.
    16. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
    17. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9857 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Trends in Structural Changes and Convergence in EU," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 91-101, March.
    19. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
    20. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    21. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    2. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz, 2016. "Exploring CESEE-EMU Synchronisation Patterns," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(42), pages 255-255, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    2. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    3. Ionuț JIANU, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 19-32, Summer.
    4. Schleer, Frauke & Sachs, Andreas, 2009. "Labour Market Institutions and Structural Reforms: A Source for Business Cycle Synchronisation?," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-008, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    6. Fries, Claudia & Kappler, Marcus, 2015. "Does foreign direct investment synchronise business cycles? Results from a panel approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-031, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    8. Jianu, Ionut, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 19-32.
    9. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    10. Ioannis Tsamourgelis & Persa Paflioti & Thomas Vitsounis, 2013. "Seaports Activity (A)synchronicity, Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Convergence: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), International Journal of Maritime, Trade & Economic Issues (IJMTEI), vol. 0(1), pages 67-92.
    11. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    13. M. Ayhan Kose & Guy M. Meredith & Christopher M. Towe, 2005. "How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 35-81, Springer.
    14. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    15. N. Antonakakis & G. Tondl, 2014. "Does integration and economic policy coordination promote business cycle synchronization in the EU?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 541-575, August.
    16. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2010. "Financial Regulation, Integration and Synchronization of Economic Activity," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1005, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 2010.
    17. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2013. "Labour costs dynamics in the Euro area: some empirical evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 323-347, September.
    18. Claudia Busl & Marcus Kappler, 2013. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Synchronise Business Cycles? Results from a Panel Approach. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 23," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46884.
    19. Valerija Botric & Tanja Broz & Sasa Jaksic, 2019. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with the Euro Area Countries at Times of Crisis: Differences Between SEE and CEE Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 17(2), pages 175-191.
    20. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Xue, Chang & Zhou, Shaojie, 2020. "Bureaucratic integration and synchronization of regional economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade integration; financial integration; specialization; business cycle synchronization; Euro Area; CEE economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:1:p:86-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.