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A two-state Markov-switching distinctive conditional variance application for tanker freight returns

Author

Listed:
  • Wessam Abouarghoub

    (University of the West of England, Bristol)

  • Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal

    (University of the West of England, Bristol)

  • Peter Howells

    (University of the West of England, Bristol)

Abstract

The few papers that explore different ways to measure shipping freight dynamics have differed in their interpretation of the most suitable measure for conditional freight volatility and consequently for the most appropriate freight risk measure. Furthermore, recent empirical work in maritime studies suggests the possibility of conditional freight volatility switching between different regime states that are dynamically distinct. This paper attributes these dissimilarities in findings within maritime literature to the possibility of freight returns switching between distinctive volatility structures. Therefore, it proposes a two-state Markov-switching distinctive conditional variance model by matching the two-state conditional freight variance to the most suitable GARCH specification. This provides for the first time a distinctive empirical insight into the dynamics of tanker freight rates by explaining the dissimilarities within the maritime literature in measuring freight risk that improves our understanding of the changes in volatility dynamics of the freight supply curve. Thus, this study postulates that the dynamics of freight rates are distinct and conditional on the freight volatility regime-state that prevails at the time. Empirical findings postulate that volatilities within tanker freight returns are better modelled by a framework that is capable of capturing volatility dynamics within the tanker freight market. This study attempts to explain the dissimilarities within the maritime literature in measuring freight risk by improving our understanding of the changes in volatility dynamics of the freight supply curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Wessam Abouarghoub & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Peter Howells, 2013. "A two-state Markov-switching distinctive conditional variance application for tanker freight returns," Working Papers 20131314, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:20131314
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    File URL: http://www2.uwe.ac.uk/faculties/BBS/BUS/Research/Economics13/1314.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Suzanne Fry & Felix Ritchie, 2012. "Issues in the measurement of low pay: 2010," Working Papers 20121210, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. Wessam M. T. Abouarghoub & Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, 2011. "Measuring level of risk exposure in tanker Shipping freight markets," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 20-44, December.
    3. Gail Pacheco & De Wet van der Westhuizen & Don J. Webber, 2012. "The changing influence of culture on job satisfaction across Europe: 1981-2008," Working Papers 2012-06, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2021. "Measuring bulk shipping prices risk," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 291-309, June.

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