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The Forward Premium is Still a Puzzle

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  • Craig Burnside

Abstract

Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and lending in foreign currency "compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption growth risk," yet the stochastic discount factor corresponding to their benchmark model is approximately uncorrelated with the returns they study. Hence, one cannot reject the null hypothesis that their model explains none of the cross-sectional variation of the expected returns. Given this finding, and other evidence, I argue that the forward premium puzzle remains a puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Craig Burnside, 2007. "The Forward Premium is Still a Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    3. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1285-1309 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption‐Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3477-3500, December.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2269-2308, December.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:154:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.
    8. A. Craig Burnside, 2007. "Empirical Asset Pricing and Statistical Power in the Presence of Weak Risk Factors," NBER Working Papers 13357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
    11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Joseph B. Doyle, 2012. "Carry Trade and Systemic Risk: Why are FX Options so Cheap?," NBER Working Papers 18644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Auer Benjamin R., 2012. "Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(5), pages 518-544, October.
    13. Craig Burnside, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 349-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS.
    15. Erik Schlogl & Yang Chang, 2012. "Carry Trade and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from Forward and Cross-Currency Swap Markets," Research Paper Series 310, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Craig Burnside, 2011. "Carry Trades and Risk," NBER Working Papers 17278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Zhang, Xiang, 2020. "Leisure and long-run risks: An empirical evaluation on value premium puzzle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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