IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/rpaper/195.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time Delay and Noise Explaining Cyclical Fluctuations in Prices of Commodities

Author

Abstract

This paper suggests to model jointly time delay and random effects in economics and finance. It proposes to explain the random and often cyclical fluctuations in commodity prices as a consequence of the interplay between external noise and time delays caused by the time between initiation of production and delivery. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic delay differential equation. The typical behavior of a commodity price index under this model will be discussed. Methods for parameter estimation and the evaluation of functionals will be proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Uwe Küchler & Eckhard Platen, 2007. "Time Delay and Noise Explaining Cyclical Fluctuations in Prices of Commodities," Research Paper Series 195, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-02/QFR-rp195.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2000. "Strong discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 189-205.
    2. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2002. "Weak discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 497-507.
    3. Mackey, Michael C., 1989. "Commodity price fluctuations: Price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 497-509, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2010. "Dynamics of moving average rules in a continuous-time financial market model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 615-634, December.
    2. David R. Banos & Giulia Di Nunno & Frank Proske, 2013. "Sensitivity analysis in a market with memory," Papers 1312.5116, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    3. Orimar Sauri, 2024. "Asymptotic Error Distribution of the Euler Scheme for Fractional Stochastic Delay Differential Equations with Additive Noise," Papers 2402.08513, arXiv.org.
    4. Cordoni, Francesco & Di Persio, Luca & Maticiuc, Lucian & Zălinescu, Adrian, 2020. "A stochastic approach to path-dependent nonlinear Kolmogorov equations via BSDEs with time-delayed generators and applications to finance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 1669-1712.
    5. Yan, Tingjin & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2023. "Portfolio liquidation with delayed information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Wenwu & Cao, Jinde, 2007. "Synchronization control of stochastic delayed neural networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 373(C), pages 252-260.
    2. Ghassan Dibeh, 2001. "Time Delays and Business Cycles: Hilferding's model revisited," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 329-341.
    3. Chambers, Marcus J., 1998. "The estimation of systems of joint differential-difference equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 1-31, July.
    4. Sophie Mitra & Jean‐Marc Boussard, 2012. "A simple model of endogenous agricultural commodity price fluctuations with storage," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Uwe Küchler & Michael Sørensen, 2010. "A simple estimator for discrete-time samples from affine stochastic delay differential equations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 125-132, June.
    6. Paul Zak, 1999. "Kaleckian Lags in General Equilibrium," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 321-330.
    7. Joanne S. McGarry & Marcus J. Chambers, 2004. "Party formation and coalitional bargaining in a model of proportional representation," Discussion Papers 04-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    8. Victor Olkhov, 2021. "Three Remarks On Asset Pricing," Papers 2105.13903, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "An analysis of time-varying commodity market price discovery," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-133.
    10. Sophie Mitra & Jean-Marc Boussard, 2008. "Storage and the Volatility of Agricultural Prices: A Model of Endogenous Fluctuations," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-11, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    11. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai, 2012. "Heterogeneous beliefs and adaptive behaviour in a continuous-time asset price model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 973-987.
    12. Küchler, Uwe & Platen, Eckhard, 2002. "Weak discrete time approximation of stochastic differential equations with time delay," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 497-507.
    13. Yuan, Chenggui & Mao, Xuerong, 2004. "Convergence of the Euler–Maruyama method for stochastic differential equations with Markovian switching," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 223-235.
    14. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
    15. Hu, Rong, 2020. "Almost sure exponential stability of the Milstein-type schemes for stochastic delay differential equations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Marco Ferrante & Elisabetta Ferraris & Carles Rovira, 2016. "On a stochastic epidemic SEIHR model and its diffusion approximation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(3), pages 482-502, September.
    17. Eckhard Platen, 2020. "Stochastic Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic," Research Paper Series 409, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. Ghassan Dibeh & Haidar Harmanani, 2012. "A Stochastic Chartist–Fundamentalist Model with Time Delays," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 105-113, August.
    19. Victor Olkhov, 2022. "Market-Based Asset Price Probability," Papers 2205.07256, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    20. Chen, Jianxin & Zhang, Tonghua & Zhou, Yongwu, 2020. "Dynamics of a risk-averse newsvendor model with continuous-time delay in supply chain financing," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 133-148.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; stochastic delay differential equation; cyclical behavior; scenario simulation; parameter estimation; autocorrelation function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.