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Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA

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Abstract

We describe a new CGE model of South Asia, and its application to understanding the socio-economic aspects of SAFTA. The model currently covers India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and the rest of South Asia. It is being expanded to include Nepal and Pakistan. The model incorporates modifications to the household structure to capture implications of reform for intra-household income changes.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 2008-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2008-02
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    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    2. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
    3. Sandra Polaski et al, 2008. "Policy dilemmas in India: The Impact of changes in agricultural prices on rural and urban poverty," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2008-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2008. "Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis," MPRA Paper 9267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. John Gilbert, 2009. "Agricultural Trade Reform Under Doha and Poverty in India," Working Papers 200903, Utah State University, Department of Economics and Finance, revised 28 Jun 2009.
    7. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 19(2), pages 141-169.
    8. Prakash Raj Sapkota & John Cockburn, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Nepal: an Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers MPIA 2008-13, PEP-MPIA.
    9. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    10. Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and regional integration: the search for large numbers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(4), pages 1-20.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:17:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Basanta K. Pradhan & Sahoo Amarendra, 2006. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Household Welfare and Poverty in India," Working Papers MPIA 2006-01, PEP-MPIA.
    13. Manoj Panda & A. Ganesh-Kumar, 2008. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Food Security in India," Trade Working Papers 22410, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Acharya, Sanjaya & Cohen, Solomon, 2008. "Trade liberalisation and household welfare in Nepal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1057-1060.
    15. Sanjaya Acharya, 2007. "Flow Structure in Nepal and the Benefit to the Poor," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(17), pages 1-14.
    16. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas, 2003. "Labor market distortions and China's WTO accession package:: an applied general equilibrium assessment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 774-794, December.
    17. Annabi, Nabil & Khondker, Bazlul & Raihan, Selim & Cockburn, John & Decaluwe, Bernard, 2006. "Implications of WTO agreements and unilateral trade policy reforms for poverty in Bangladesh : short versus long-run impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3976, The World Bank.
    18. Thomas W. Hertel & L. Alan Winters, 2005. "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of a Prospective Doha Development Agenda," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(8), pages 1057-1071, August.
    19. Fontana, Marzia & Wobst, Peter, 2001. "A gendered 1993-94 Social Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh," TMD discussion papers 74, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Robert Scollay & John Gilbert, 2000. "Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalisation: An Overview of CGE Assessments," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 175-197, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Orlov, Anton & Grethe, Harald & McDonald, Scott, 2010. "An Economy-wide Analysis of an Increase in Energy Prices in Russia: Relevance of the Nesting Structure for Output Effects," Conference papers 331947, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Sumudu Perera & Mahinda Siriwardana & Stuart Mounter, 2014. "Should agriculture be exempt from trade policy reforms in South Asia?," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 67-106, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SAFTA; CGE; Poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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