IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/9267.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed, Vaqar
  • O' Donoghue, Cathal

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare impact of changes in the external balance of a developing economy (Pakistan). We explain that the economic growth achieved during the past decade is highly dependent on the improvements in external balance. After 2001, Pakistan has benefited from, an increase in the inflow of remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. This was complimented by growth in the real sector. The GDP grew at an average of 7 percent from 2002 to 2007. During the same time period the growth in per-capita income was around 13 percent in dollar terms. This performance however has come under pressure due to the rising inflation, slowing down of global economy and external price shocks. The increase in import price of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential of reducing the growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and thereby threatening the gains achieved during the past seven years in reducing the poverty levels. We study using a CGE-microsimulation model the effects of changes in import prices faced by Pakistan. Also provided in the simulation exercise is an analysis of increase in foreign savings that are usually prescribed for developing economies in order to augment the domestic savings and channelling investment towards developments in infrastructure and social sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2008. "Welfare impact of external balance in pakistan: CGE-microsimulation analysis," MPRA Paper 9267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9267/1/MPRA_paper_9267.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. El-Said, Moataz & Robinson, Sherman, 2000. "GAMS code for estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) using cross entropy methods (CE)," TMD discussion papers 64, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Paul Dorosh & Muhammad Khan Niazi & Hina Nazli, 2006. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Pakistan, 2001-02: Methodology and Results," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:9, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    3. Adams, Richard H. Jr. & He, Jane J., 1995. "Sources of income inequality and poverty in rural Pakistan:," Research reports 102, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Maurizio Bussolo & Jann Lay, 2003. "Globalisation and Poverty Changes in Colombia," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
    5. Coady, David & Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2004. "Evaluating targeted cash transfer programs: a general equilibrium framework with an application to Mexico," Research reports 137, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. N. Hérault, 2006. "Building And Linking A Microsimulation Model To A Cge Model For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(1), pages 34-58, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Gilbert & Nilanjan Banik, 2012. "Socio-economic impacts of regional transport infrastructure in South Asia," Chapters, in: Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Masahiro Kawai & Rajat M. Nag (ed.), Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity, chapter 5, pages 139-163, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Arshad Ali Bhatti & Zakia Batool & Hasnain A. Naqvi, 2015. "Fiscal Policy and Its Role in Reducing Income Inequality- A CGE Analysis for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 843-864.
    3. John Gilbert, 2008. "Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA," Working Papers 2008-02, Utah State University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Dec 2008.
    4. Gilbert, John & Banik, Nilanjan, 2010. "Socioeconomic Impacts of Cross-Border Transport Infrastructure Development in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 211, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal, Sofia Anwar, Kakali Mukhopadhay, Muhammad Aamir Khan, 2017. "GSP Plus Status and Income Distribution: A CGE Model for Pakistan," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(1), pages 27-53, March.
    6. Ahmed, Vaqar & Wahab Siddiqui, Abdul, 2010. "Nexus between aid and security: the case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahmed, Vaqar & Sugiyarto, Guntur & Jha, Shikha, 2010. "Remittances and Household Welfare: A Case Study of Pakistan," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 194, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Acharya, Sanjaya & Hölscher, Jens & Perugini, Cristiano, 2012. "Trade liberalisation and inequalities in Nepal: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2543-2557.
    9. Birouke Tefera & Frehiwot Worku & Zewdu Ayalew, 2012. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks and Subsidizing Oil Prices to the Ethiopian Economy: A CGE Analysis," Working Papers 008, Policy Studies Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keogh-Brown, Marcus & McDonald, Scott & Edmunds, W. John & Beutels, Philippe & Smith, Richard D., 2008. "The macroeconomic costs of a global influenza pandemic," Conference papers 331699, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2010. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE - Microsimulation Analysis," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 45-90, Jan-Jun.
    3. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Les apports de la micro-simulation aux modèles d'équilibre général : application au cas de l'Afrique du Sud," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 123-135.
    4. Nicolas Hérault, 2009. "Sequential Linking of Computable General Equilibrium and Microsimulation Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Andrew Feltenstein & Luciana Lopes & Janet Porras Mendoza & Sally Wallace, 2013. "“The Impact of Micro-simulation and CGE modeling on Tax Reform and Tax Advice in Developing Countries”: A Survey of Alternative Approaches and an Application to Pakistan," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1309, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    6. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2008. "The Impact of Developed Country Agricultural Trade Liberalization on Poverty: A Survey," Working Papers hal-03416399, HAL.
    7. van Ruijven, Bas J. & O’Neill, Brian C. & Chateau, Jean, 2015. "Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 530-543.
    8. Hilel Hamadache & Sophie S. Drogue, 2014. "Staple food market regulation in Algeria, what is the alternative policy? A CGE analysis for wheat," Post-Print hal-02795719, HAL.
    9. Maheshwar Rao & Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama, 2013. "‘A Systems Approach to Analyse the Impacts of Water Policy Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin: a conceptual and an analytical framework’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 13/22, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    10. Naschold, Felix, 2016. "Measuring Poverty Over Time - Accounting for the intertemporal distribution of poverty," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235722, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Luc Savard, 2004. "Un système de demandes AIDS dans un contexte EGC microsimulation pour l'analyse de pauvreté et des inégalités," Cahiers de recherche 04-10, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Kebede, Sindu & Fekadu, Belay & Aredo, Dejene, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Poverty: A Macro-Micro Analysis in Ethiopia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 44, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    13. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & Rodríguez, Miguel, 2009. "An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5776-5786, December.
    14. Juan M. Villa, 2016. "Social Transfers and Growth: Evidence from Luminosity Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 39-61.
    15. World Bank, 2012. "Pakistan - Strategic Environmental, Poverty and Social Assessment of Trade and Transport Sector Reforms," World Bank Publications - Reports 12316, The World Bank Group.
    16. Alan Martín Hernández-Solano & Véronique Sophie Avila-Foucat, 2019. "Adaptación al cambio climático y sus efectos en la economía de los hogares rurales mexicanos productores de alimentos. (Climate change adaptation and its effects on the economy of the rural Mexican ho," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 61-86, May.
    17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/10184 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Thierry Mayer, 2006. "Policy Coherence for Development: A Background Paper on Foreign Direct Investment," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 253, OECD Publishing.
    19. Chen, Jing & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Market Emergence And The Rise And Fall Of Backyard Hog Production In China," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21969, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Courbois, Claude & Delgado, Christopher L. & Ehui, Simeon K. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision briefs 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Yolande van Heerden & Niek Schoeman, 2010. "An Empirical Dissemination Of The Personal Income Tax Regime In South Africa Using A Microsimulation Tax Model," Working Papers 201025, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Model; Microsimulation; Balance of Payments; Economic Growth; Poverty; Inequality; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.