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A dynamic analysis of the global timber market under global warming: an integrated modeling approach

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  • Dug Lee
  • Kenneth Lyon

Abstract

We developed a dynamic integrated modeling approach to identify the effect of global warming on the global timber market. The Timber Supply Model 2000, BIOME 3, and Hamburg were used as a suitable economic and ecological model. The TSM 2000 was adopted to model dynamic economic behavior in the global timber market. BIOME 3 was utilized as our steady state ecological model, and Hamburg as our general circulation model. The TSM 200 was developed to consider more important up-to-date components in the global timber market. We estimated dynamic ecological change based on the simulation results of BIOME 3 using Hamburg and the linearality assumptions about change in climate and ecosystem. With the estimates of dynamic ecological change, we modified the TSM 2000 to reflect the dynamic ecological change caused by climate change. After simulating the nonclimate base scenario and the climate change scenario of the TSM 2000, we identified that global warming has a positive effect on the global timber market through an increase of timber productions causing stumpage prices to be lower than they otherwise would have been. In the welfare sense, we also examined that global warming is economically beneficial to society through the global timber market. For sensitivity analyses, we performed these simulation procedures under three different timber demand growth scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Dug Lee & Kenneth Lyon, 2001. "A dynamic analysis of the global timber market under global warming: an integrated modeling approach," Working Papers 2001-11, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:usu:wpaper:2001-11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sedjo, Roger & Lyon, Kenneth, 1996. "Timber Supply Model 96: A Global Timber Supply Model with a Pulpwood Component," RFF Working Paper Series dp-96-15, Resources for the Future.
    2. Peter Berck, 1979. "The Economics of Timber: A Renewable Resource in the Long Run," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(2), pages 447-462, Autumn.
    3. Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1998. "Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market: The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 686-710, September.
    4. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyon, Kenneth S., 2004. "Modeling Timber Supply, Fuel-Wood, And Atmospheric Carbon Mitigation," Economics Research Institute, ERI Series 28339, Utah State University, Economics Department.
    2. Hashida, Yukiko & Lewis, David J., 2022. "Estimating welfare impacts of climate change using a discrete-choice model of land management: An application to western U.S. forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Johnson, Kelsey K. & Lewis, David J., 2024. "Weather variability risks slow climate adaptation: An empirical analysis of forestry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Joelle SAAD-LESSLER & George TSELIOUDIS, 2010. "Storms, Climate Change, And The Us Economy: A National Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1).
    5. Joelle SAAD-LESSLER & George TSELIOUDES, 2009. "Storms, Climate Change, and the US Economy: A National Analysis," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal control theory; global warming; global timber market; timber supply model; ecological change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry

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