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Dynamic Relationship of Commodities prices and EUR/USD exchange rate trends in the recent past

Author

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  • Michele Patanè
  • Mattia Tedesco
  • Stefano Zedda

Abstract

Gold and Oil have always had a central role within the international economy, and meet the interests of many investors, and in particular, speculators. The Euro introduction (1999) has added the Euro-Dollar exchange rate as a further main variable that the operators, investing on these commodities, have to consider when implementing their strategies. This paper analyzes the mutual relationship between commodities prices (gold and oil) and the Euro/Dollar exchange rate, within the time frame from 2004 to 2014, so to find which specific variable can give significant information on the ex-pected variation of which other variable, and on which time horizon. This can support the of investors’ choices on tak-ing more effective speculative positions. Results obtained by means of a VAR model show some significant statistical relationship between the three variables on the short term (i.e. when considering daily data), but also some possible relationship on a longer term (monthly data), suggesting that oil prices can give significant information on the expected value of the Euro/Dollar exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Patanè & Mattia Tedesco & Stefano Zedda, 2017. "Dynamic Relationship of Commodities prices and EUR/USD exchange rate trends in the recent past," Department of Economics University of Siena 759, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:wpaper:759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    2. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 11-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    3. Myeong Hwan Kim & David A. Dilts, 2011. "The Relationship of the value of the Dollar, and the Prices of Gold and Oil: A Tale of Asset Risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1151-1162.
    4. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Rayhanul Islam & Huang Xiaoling, 2022. "Impact of Everything But Arms (EBA) on the Dhaka Stock Exchange," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 7(1), pages 34-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities; Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate; Relationship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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